Analysis Of Export Duration And Influencing Factors Of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises

The duration of trade links is a new issue in international trade research.Under the background of China’s increasingly close contact with other countries in the world and China’s economic dependence on the world economy,the steady increase of export volume not only needs to actively explore trade partners,but also needs to maintain and deepen the inherent trade relations.At the micro level,this reflects how to reduce the interruption of existing export trade relations,that is,how to prolong the duration of export trade.Literature on the duration of import and export trade is studied by using survival analysis method.Survival analysis method can not only describe the distribution of export duration of enterprises,but also analyze the influencing factors of survival time by using risk model.On the basis of a full introduction to the relevant theories of survival analysis,this thesis conducts an empirical analysis on the export duration and influencing factors of Chinese manufacturing enterprises based on the export data of Chinese industrial enterprises database and China Customs database from 2000 to 2013.Firstly,this thesis estimates the survival function of export trade relationship of Chinese manufacturing enterprises by using life table method,and draws the corresponding survival curve.The research finds that the average duration of export of Chinese manufacturing enterprises is 3.29 years,and the median is 3.82 years,which is higher than the average and median duration of export of enterprises in existing literature.On the one hand,the reason may be that the export survival of Chinese manufacturing enterprises is better than the total of all Chinese enterprises.On the other hand,it may be that the data used in this thesis is longer than the time span of reference data,thus increasing the mean value of export duration.In the estimation of enterprise survival function by region,enterprise ownership and industry type,the export survival time of enterprises in the eastern region is obviously higher than that of central and western regions,the export survival time of state-owned enterprises is obviously lower than that of private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises,and the export duration of machinery and equipment manufacturing enterprises is obviously lower than that of light textile and resource processing enterprises.Secondly,this thesis uses discrete time risk model to analyze the influence of export duration of manufacturing enterprises.It is found that the age of enterprises,the size of enterprises,the initial trading volume of trade relations and other factors have a significant impact on the sustained risk of export trade relations,thus affecting the duration of export trade of enterprises.The robustness test also verifies the reliability of the impact.Among them,enterprise age and unit price of export products have a positive impact on export persistence risk,and the increase of enterprise age and unit price of export products will increase export persistence risk,which is not conducive to the extension of export persistence time.However,firm size,initial trading volume of trade relationship,per capita wage,capital intensity and foreign participation of firm have a negative impact on export persistent risk,which is beneficial to the stability of export trade relationship.In addition,this thesis also distinguishes the enterprise location,enterprise ownership and industry type to analyze the influencing factors,and obtains the conclusion that some factors have significant regional and ownership differences on manufacturing enterprises’ export sustained risk.Finally,the thesis summarizes the main conclusions based on analysis results,and puts forward the experience guidance and suggestions for enterprises’ export decision-making.