Research On The Public Opinion Spread Of Emergency Events Based On Evolutionary Game

The innovation of information communication technology and the increase of social complexity have brought new challenges to the governance and guidance of network public opinion.The rise and popularity of social media platforms not only breaks the boundaries of time and space,but also further breaks the “single-level” supervision model in which the government is the main control body in the traditional network environment,plus the supervision of social media platforms such as Weibo and We Chat The imperfect mechanism and imperfect supervision system have also greatly reduced the threshold for users to enter,accelerated the dissemination of information,and forced public opinion to spread and influence by means of diffusion and radiation.The traditional research on online public opinion regards online public opinion as a whole,and the subject of public opinion communication is fixed,but in real-life communication,the subject participating in different stages of the development of online public opinion is not invariable.Therefore,this article redefines the main body of emergency public opinion communication in the network,which is more in line with the actual propagation process of emergency public opinion.This paper introduces the relevant theoretical basis of emergencies online public opinion research by sorting out and analyzing the relevant documents of emergencies online public opinion,and points out the deficiencies of the existing research.The public opinion research model of the incident network is improved.Based on the full life cycle of the emergency network public opinion propagation evolution game model,the stability point of evolution is obtained by solving the replication dynamic equation,and on this basis,the stability analysis is carried out based on The actual case simulates and analyzes the built model,which proves the rationality of the model,and provides targeted suggestions for the supervision of the network public opinion of the emergencies.Based on the above ideas,the main research content of this article can be divided into the following three parts.First of all,through the literature,the main body of communication in the process of spreading public opinion on the Internet is the communicator,non-disseminator and the regulator.According to the identity of the communication body at different stages,it is divided into ordinary netizens,media and government The role positioning in the process of emergency public opinion communication established the participants of the evolutionary game in the article.Secondly,construct an evolutionary game model of the emergence of Internet public opinion during emergencies,divide the Internet public opinion into the formation period,the diffusion period,and the dissipative period according to the life cycle theory,and determine the participants at different stages in combination with the actual situation of the Internet public opinion transmission,and determine the revenue matrix.And establish a replication dynamic equation to obtain the equilibrium point of the evolutionary game,and finally perform stability analysis.Finally,according to the actual case "Hangzhou Nanny Arson Case",the strategy of the public opinion propagator is mapped to the parameters of the game in each stage,and the simulation software is used to analyze and optimize the results by adjusting the parameters,and then choose the strategies of the participants at different stages.The research conclusions of this paper are drawn as follows: 1)In the initial stage of online public opinion dissemination of emergencies,punishing the communicators who deliberately spread negative information can have a significant governance effect;2)The netizens' gathering income during the diffusion period and the netizens' topic resistance value affect The key factors of Internet users' communication behavior;3)The government's behavior plays a major role in the dissipation period.Therefore,in the process of governance of public opinion in emergencies,it is necessary to formulate targeted strategies according to the different stages of public opinion development.