Techno-economic Analysis And Prediction For The Deployment Of 5G Mobile Network

Nowadays,mobile penetration rates have exceeded 100% in many countries.The fourth generation of mobile networks(4G)must overcome the new challenges that have emerged with the explosive growth in demand for mobile traffic and the Internet of Things.Currently,the most of operators are already encountered the capacity issues in the populated areas where mobile traffic density is at its highest.The so called ?mobile capacity crunch? for the 4G mobile network where operators provides great effort to meet the growth of demand with the required quality of service through provision of additional spectrum or building additional capacity sites to soak up traffic.Therefore,the OMNs(Operator Mobile Networks)should plan for upgrading 4G to 5G mobile network beyond 2020,which is the expected year for launching 5G.With the persistent difficulty on containing capital and operating costs,OMNs will need to understand the introduction of 5G technology,especially the business case for small cell deployments.They will require to have a clear idea of when and where in the 5G network deployment will be cost-effectively feasible and add value to their business.Various research papers and reports have been analyzing the technologies and describing their capability to satisfy the growth in mobile broadband demand.However,for our best knowledge,this is the first work that analyze the commercial launch and the business case of the deployment of 5G mobile networks.To identify the influencing parameters for the deployment of the new technology,this study has analyzed 5G migration scenarios based on the future traffic demand,deployment costs,network capacity,population density,service requirements and geographical coverage in city of Shanghai/China.The contribution of this thesis project is a holistic technoeconomic analysis and mathematic modeling approach was considered.Also,a new pricing model is proposed to be consistent with the growth of mobile broadband.The two major cost elements,Capital Expenditure and Operative Expenditure were compared with the revenue expected to be collected within the deployment period.The results show that 5G is very beneficial,not only because of its lower cost compared with 4G LTE,but also due to the increment of average data consumptions offered by 5G mobile technologies and the increasing growth of number of users.We also found that good analysis of Price Elasticity of Volume gives an important margin of benefit.We confirm that the reuse of existing sites have a large impact on reducing costs when a denser macro network deployed.However,we encountered a lack of the limited capacity related to the macro sites and coverage limited with small cell solutions like femtocells,picocells deployed with 5G mmW system and Wi-Fi.