| The development of real estate market plays an important role in the development of national economy and the improvement of residents’ quality of life.At present,the real estate market has become one of the important pillars of China’s economic development system.However,the general requirement of China’s economic development has changed from high speed to high quality,an important factor supporting the development of the real estate market —— the demographic dividend is no longer there.In recent years,a series of data published by the National Bureau of Statistics also show that our country has experienced serious aging and lower birth rate,and these data also directly show that the total population of our country is decreasing at present,and the more serious is that the labor force population is decreasing.And the decrease of the labor force population will not only lead to a series of practical problems in the society,such as "labor shortage ",the increase of labor cost and so on,but also may cause the consumption demand of some industries and even the whole economy and society to decline,thus causing serious negative impact on the economic growth of our country.In this context,it means that the number of people each city can have has a significant impact on its economic development.As a result,many cities have begun to liberalize restrictions and introduce various policies to actively attract population inflows,especially the introduction of talent.However,at the same time,the housing price,which is closely related to the population,is high and has become a heavy burden in the daily working life of residents.So what is the impact of such a high house price on population agglomeration? This is worth us to explore,so it is necessary to study the effect of house prices on urban population agglomeration.From the perspective of house price fluctuation,on the basis of population agglomeration and other theories,this paper makes a preliminary study and judgment on the influence of commodity housing price fluctuation on population mobility during the period 2007-2017 by collecting relevant data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China,and uses the econometric analysis model to carry on the empirical research to it.The results show that there is a threshold within which rising house prices will attract people,and beyond that,they will no longer attract people;this is mainly because cities have better education,health care,better job opportunities,and so on,but once they are overburdened by rising house prices,these advantages rising house prices.In addition,from the age stage of the population,combined with the data collected from the major cities for empirical analysis,the results show that the rise in house prices will have different effects on different age groups,the most significant impact on the labor force population.Therefore,it is suggested that the government should formulate a relatively more rational population policy,optimize the population structure and alleviate the aging crisis;optimize the structure of commodity housing market,accelerate the construction of indemnificatory apartment,or make and perfect the social housing plan according to the diversity of floating population groups,ensure the internal housing structure and maximize the attraction of population inflow;pay attention to the housing welfare of young people in the inflow group to attract talent inflow;At the same time,it is necessary to make use of the opportunity of urban industrial transfer and structural upgrading to rationally plan the distribution of floating population,so as to alleviate the housing market pressure in major cities and their central areas,so as to stabilize house prices and maintain the steady development of the real estate market.The most important thing is to let the people form the social consciousness of "housing without speculation" and fundamentally solve the problem of house prices. |
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