The Impact Of Urban Population Structure Change On Housing Price

From the beginning of this century,China began to build a comprehensive socialist market economic system,one major policy is commercializing residential.Despite ups and downs,the real estate market in China grows rapidly,even overheating for several times.In particular,after 2003,domestic housing prices began to rise rapidly,most of the city's housing prices rose significantly and become the focus of attention.In order to stabilize housing prices,the government keeps regulating the real estate market.But the overall housing price is still in the rising channel,sometimes it rebounds quickly after the occasional fall.Another characteristic of the real estate market of china is difference of housing price in different cities is becoming more and more obvious.In first-tier cities,such as Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen,housing prices have become a heavy burden of ordinary residents.In most of the second-tier cities or provincial capital cities,the housing price is highest among other cities in the provincial area.The housing price in small and medium-sized cities varies according to their economic development status.In this thesis,the capital city(Wuhan)and the prefecture-level city(Jingzhou)in Hubei province in central china are chosen as the research objects to discuss the development trend of housing prices in different cities in the same province.In this thesis,by analyzing the population size and population structure of the two cities,research and forecast the average price of commercial housing.Taking the price of commercial housing as a dependent variable,and the six indicators(the population size,population sex ratio,family size,per capita disposable income,population structure and non-farm population)as independent variables,I establish multiple linear regression model,utilize stepwise regression,get an outcome of optimal model contained two indicators(population size and per capita disposable income)only,these two indicators have positive correlation with the average price of residential real estate.This model can provide referrals and recommendations to government,real estate enterprise,financial institutions or consumers.At the end of the thesis,by using the optimal model,the average prices of residential buildings in Wuhan and Jingzhou are forecasted.After 5 years,the average price of residential buildings in Wuhan is 12,363.32 yuan per square meter,and the average price of residential in Jingzhou is 6964.77 yuan per square meter.