Study On The Impact Of Popultation Aging On Health Expenditure In China

Since 2000,China's population aging has been deepening.With the increase of age,the health status of the elderly population is declining.The morbidity of the elderly population is increasing and they often have more needs for health services.Accordingly,health expenditure will continue to grow.In recent years,with the continuous development of health services in China,the number of medical institutions and health personnel has increased rapidly.At the same time,the drawbacks of China's health care system are constantly emerging.Firstly,the growth of health expenditure is too fast,the financing structure of health expenditure is unreasonable,and the burden of personal health expenditure is heavy.Secondly,the allocation of medical and health resources is unbalanced,and there are obvious differences between urban and rural areas.Thirdly,the gap between urban and rural areas in per capita health expenditure is large.Under the background of "getting old before getting rich" in our country,the problem of population aging has exerted great influences on social economy,medical care and other aspects.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the impact of population aging on health expenditure.In order to analyze the impact of population aging on health expenditure more deeply,based on Grossman's health demand theory and Di Matteo's macro-theoretical analysis model,this paper estimates the elasticity of population aging to health expenditure from two perspectives of outpatient expenditure and hospitalization expenditure,using seven-year provincial panel data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2010 to 2016.In this paper,the whole sample regression estimation and the regional regression estimation are carried out successively.There are three conclusions:Firstly,at the national level,there is a significant positive correlation between population aging and health expenditure.However,the elasticity of population aging to the per capita hospitalization expenditure(0.159)is slightly lower than that of outpatient expenditure(0.213).Secondly,at the national level,medical insurance fund expenditure,the number of medical institutions,the level of urbanization and the level of education are significantly positively correlated with the health expenditure.The progress of medical technology has a positive effect on the per capita hospitalization expenditure,but has no significant correlation with the per capita outpatient expenditure.Thirdly,from the regional level,there is a significant positive correlation between population aging and health expenditure,whether in the eastern or central and western regions.But in the two models,the elasticity of population aging in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western regions.Faced with the increasingly serious population aging problem,we should plan comprehensively and put forward feasible suggestions on the premise of taking into account the demand for health care services of the elderly population and effectively controlling the excessive growth of health expenditure.This paper puts forward three suggestions;Firstly,the government should increase health investment rationally and reduce personal medical burden.Secondly,the government should improve the multi-level medical security system.Thirdly,the government should accelerate the health management of the elderly population.