Study On Risk Identification And Evaluation Of Highway PPP Project

As one of the core hubs of China's transportation mode,the complete layout of the road network is also a necessary condition for the country's rapid development.However,the construction of the road network in the western region of China is far less developed than that in the eastern region,and as the traditional investment mode is far from meeting the needs of the rapid construction and development of our country's road system,the introduction of the resource allocation advantages of PPP mode to solve the problem of insufficient government financial funds has become an inevitable trend,especially in the western region where economic policies are relatively backward.However,through the application of PPP mode in various regions of the country,it is found that nearly half of the projects cannot be smoothly carried out due to insufficient estimation of the severity of the possible risk events,which affects the construction period,damages the funds and even directly fails to exit.Therefore,choosing a correct and efficient identification and evaluation system to carry out risk assessment to help managers formulate strategies to avoid risk events is the core point of PPP project success.Based on the above points,the article is carrying out research on the risk related work of highway PPP projects in the western region.The main work of the article is as follows:(1)In order to solve the problems of strong subjectivity and incomplete identification of existing risk identification methods,a risk identification framework for highway PPP projects is established by using hierarchical holographic modeling method.Risk factors are comprehensively identified through different risk subsystems from different perspectives to improve the comprehensiveness of risk identification.Considering the complexity and time-consuming problems of actual risk management,a risk index evaluation system based on HHM method is obtained by using expert experience method and risk judgment matrix to filter out some factors with duplicate meanings or low risk occurrence probability.(2)Neglecting the dynamic change characteristics of risks as a common defect in current risk assessment.In order to solve this problem,this paper introduces set pair theory and establishes a risk assessment model based on the five-element connection number method and its partial connection number to assess the severity of risks and the possible development trend of risks.As far as possible to achieve a comprehensive risk assessment for managers to reduce losses.(3)Taking the PPP project of Class G highway as an example,considering the influence of internal and external factors on the project risk,the risk index system is used to filter out 8 risk stages and 36 specific risk factors except the operation period.Secondly,the risk assessment model based on the five-element connection number method is adopted,and the entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight of each factor in the risk index system,so as to reduce the subjectivity of risk assessment.Using the connection degree between the five-element connection quantitative index data and the evaluation grade,the fuzzy problems of "certainty" and "uncertainty" in the risk evaluation of highway PPP projects are solved to carry out comprehensive evaluation on the projects,so as to make the dynamic development trend analysis of project risks clearer.The risk evaluation model adopted in this paper can not only determine the risk level of the project,but also reflect the development trend of different risk factors,thus better helping risk managers to make risk decisions and prevent risks,which has a certain practical guiding role in improving the level of project risk control.