Research On Cost Risk Of Engineering General Contractor Under EPC Mode

EPC(Engineering,Procurement and Construction)general contracting mode,as a common contract mode,is widely applicable in the construction market.Meanwhile,cost management plays the core role of business management in EPC project,which influences inevitably both the building quality and economic interests.Due to its being large-scale,wide-ranging and frequent in policy aspects,EPC project has aroused uncertain risks,leading to deviation of the actual cost of the project from what it is originally expected,which has,unfortunately,caused huge losses to the general contractor as well.Consequently,it is comparatively essential to study the cost risk of EPC project.From the perspective of general contractors,the paper aims at studying cost risk of engineering project.We overview,firstly,the development of EPC mode and do some research about engineering cost risk management at home and abroad,then introduce and analyze the definition and main contents of EPC mode,the cost structure of EPC project,and the process of cost risk management,after which,we talk about Bayesian network as one of the methods of cost management.Based on these theories,this paper sets up an index system about cost risk,consisting of 6 first-level indicators and 25 second-level indicators for modeling,through a variety of risk identification methods such as data analysis,case analysis,expert interview,brainstorming and questionnaire,etc,and establishes a two-dimensional matrix to refer to extent and possibility of risks.With relevant survey data,we can continue machine learning and receive the causation of risks to build manually Bayesian network structure.Additionally,it is available for us to obtain the conditional probability distribution of each node variable and complete backward inference,sensitivity analysis and the largest chain analysis and draw critical and sensitive risk factors from pertinent finished data and Bayesian network,in the wake of parameter learning.In terms of these factors,some risk management suggestions are put forward to increase the cost management efficiency of EPC project.The cost risk Bayesian network model is applied conclusively to the Yangzhou Qinzheng Cultural Industrial Park EPC project,in order to predict the increase cost and verified the validity,considering quantitative analysis.By means of Bayesian network analysis,the paper studies the cost risk of engineering general contractor under EPC mode,explores the key risks and verifies the feasibility and applicability,to provide a quantitatively predictive management tool for general contractor's cost risk management.