Research On Risk Evaluation Of General Contractor Under EPC Mode

With the introduction of my country’s "Management Measures for General Contracting of Housing Construction and Municipal Infrastructure Projects",the EPC model has once again become a research hotspot in recent years.Under the EPC model,the general contractor of the project is entrusted by the owner to carry out the whole process or several stages of the design,procurement,construction,and trial operation of the construction project in accordance with the contract.The EPC model consolidates and strengthens the core position of the general contractor in the construction project,so that project risks are redistributed,and the general contractor becomes the subject of risk responsibility.The establishment of a scientific and effective risk evaluation system is of great significance to the general contractor.However,the existing research results have relatively few risk evaluations from the perspective of the general contractor,and most of the evaluation methods used are based on qualitative analysis,which leads to strong subjectivity and it is difficult to ensure the rationality of the risk evaluation results.In view of this,this article discusses the risk assessment system of general contractors for such projects from the perspective of general contractors under the EPC model,hoping to help improve the risk management level of general contractors.The thesis first analyzes the status quo of domestic and foreign related research,summarizes related concepts and theories such as risk,risk management,EPC mode,and general contractor.Through data collection and literature analysis,it initially identifies the general contractor’s performance under the EPC mode.The risk checklist,and then the final risk evaluation checklist containing 26 risk indicators was determined by compiling a Likert 5-level scale and combining with the Delphi questionnaire survey method.On this basis,the collected data was imported into the SPSS26 software to verify its reliability and validity;then,the 26 risk indicators were classified using factor analysis,and finally a structure containing 7 first-level indicators and An EPC project general contractor risk evaluation index system with 26 secondary indicators.In terms of indicator weighting,the paper compares and analyzes commonly used indicator weight distribution methods and risk evaluation methods,and finds that the rough set weighting method has high objectivity and can quantitatively evaluate uncertain information,and in terms of indicator weight distribution It is very explanatory.However,the rough set weighting method also has the disadvantage of low discrimination between the relative importance of the evaluation indicators,and occasionally the weights of some evaluation indicators are equal.In order to solve this problem,this paper further introduces the entropy weight method,which assigns weights according to the difference of information entropy of each indicator,and the weighting of indicators is clearly distinguished.However,the entropy weight method ignores the relationship between the child index and the parent index,and calculates the index weight independently without considering the entire decision table,thereby reducing the interpretability of the results.In summary,based on the idea of complementary advantages,this paper combines rough set and entropy weight method to ensure the distinguishability and interpretability of the weight distribution of evaluation indicators.In addition,because risk evaluation is a complex multi-level comprehensive activity,the entire evaluation process shows fuzziness.This article uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to comprehensively consider the connection and influence of various factors,so as to transform qualitative evaluation into quantitative evaluation.It solves the problem of ambiguity and uncertainty in the evaluation of incomplete information.Finally,this article combines specific case applications to verify the scientificity and feasibility of the general contractor’s risk assessment model constructed,and gives suggestions for risk response.The thesis combines theory with practice,enriches the risk evaluation system of general contractors,and provides a feasible reference for the future risk management research of general contractors.