Research On The Factors Of China Energy Supply Chain Risk Under The Belt And Road Initiative

Energy problem has always been an important problem related to the development of our country.With the increase of energy dependence in China in recent years,the problem of energy security in our country is becoming more and more serious.Under the background of the “Belt and Road” initiative,China's energy cooperation with other regions is also increasing.At the same time,the risks are also more complicated.how to do a good job in energy supply chain management,reasonable arrangement of energy supply chain structure,reduce the internal and external risks of energy supply chain,has become an important topic of our research.Therefore,this paper analyses factors of the “Belt and Road” under the background of energy supply chain risks.First of all,we will interpret the “Belt and Road” and study the energy situation in China and the surrounding areas,analyze the connection between the “Belt and Road” and China's energy supply chain,and summarize relevant energy cooperation between China and countries along the “Belt and Road”.The impact of the “Belt and Road” implementation on China's energy supply chain and the impact of energy supply chain construction on the implementation of the “Belt and Road” initiative were analyzed.Secondly,through the literature reading and expert advice on the initial selection of risk factors in the energy supply chain,using the Small World Network model to analyze the network structure of energy supply in the context of the “Belt and Road”,through the analysis of the network structure to determine the status of our country in energy supply chain,and the impact of energy the factors affecting efficiency and energy cooperation stability are analyzed.Based on the characteristics of the “Belt and Road” energy supply chain and the structural characteristics of the energy supply chain under the Small World Network,the risk factors affecting the energy supply chain are screened and analyzed.Then,through the system dynamics principle,the energy supply chain risk system under the “Belt and Road” background is simulated and analyzed.The causal relationship of the risk factors affecting the energy supply chain and the operation of the system are analyzed,and the function relationship between the risk factors is determined.The Vensim Software is used to simulate the entropy change of risk system.According to the simulation results,the sensitivityof each risk factor to the energy supply chain system and two subsystems is analyzed,which lays the foundation for the suggestion of the risk management of the energy supply chain.Finally,according to the position of China in the Small World Network model and the analysis of the risk of the energy supply chain by System dynamics,the corresponding suggestions on the risk management of the energy supply chain are put forward from two aspects of external risk and internal risk,which will help to establish the long-term mechanism of the risk management of the energy supply chain.