Risk Management Of Chinese Enterprises’ Foreign Green Energy Investment Under The "Belt And Road" Initiative

Since the implementation of the "One Belt,One Road" initiative,Chinese green energy enterprises have increased their outbound investment year by year.Due to the overseas investment environment contains many uncertainties,the risks faced by Chinese green energy investment enterprises gradually increase,and the risk management of Chinese enterprises’ outbound green energy investment needs to be studied in depth.The main work of this paper is as follows:Firstly,a comprehensive evaluation index system for Chinese enterprises’foreign green energy investment risks is established.Taking the countries along the "Belt and Road" as an example,we identify the various risk factors faced by Chinese enterprises in the process of foreign green energy investment.The system includes six primary indicators,including diplomatic risk,political risk,operational risk,ecological and environmental risk,energy resource risk,and economic and social risk,which are further refined into 35 secondary indicators.Secondly,the risk evaluation and classification model of Chinese enterprises’ foreign green energy investment is constructed.The three-scale method and the improved entropy weight method are used to determine the weights of primary and secondary indicators,and the VIKOR method is used to evaluate the risk of China’s green energy investment in countries along the Belt and Road,and then K-means clustering is used to classify the investment risk into four risk levels(Ⅰ to Ⅳ)from high to low.The results show that 3 countries,such as Afghanistan,have the highest risk,2 countries,such as Myanmar,have a higher risk,25 countries,such as India,have a lower risk,and 7 countries,such as Malaysia,have the lowest risk.Six risk dimensions are also combined to analyze the magnitude of green energy investment risk and the influencing factors under each dimension.Finally,scenarios with changes in different risk factors are set up for risk prediction.Combined with the scenario analysis method,we set up two scenarios with changes in factors:diplomatic risk-led scenario,political risk-led scenario,energy risk-led scenario,and ecological risk-led scenario;and three scenarios with changes in factors simultaneously:diplomatic risk and political risk co-led scenario,ecological risk and energy risk co-led scenario.The evaluation of the risk magnitude of green energy investment under each scenario shows that the importance of indicators such as bilateral relations,war risk,and tax agreements is high;Afghanistan,Mongolia,and Serbia have less variation in risk ranking under different scenarios,and the risk is always higher;while the risk of countries such as Malaysia and Singapore are always low.The study on the risk management of Chinese enterprises’ outbound green energy investment can provide an evaluation basis and decision-making reference for China’s green energy enterprises’ outbound investment.