| As the international influence of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has been continuously promoted,more and more countries have responded enthusiastically.Energy is a top priority for the implementation of the BRI,of which the potential for electricity cooperation is significant.Considering the abundance of resources,economics of prices,cleanliness of utilization,and urgent need for economic development,coal-fired power will still be the main supply source for the countries along the BRI.Under the BRI,an increasing number of Chinese electric power enterprises plan to invest in coal-fired power projects abroad.However,the countries along the BRI are mostly in a complex economic,political and financial environment,with multiple potential risks.Therefore,it is particularly necessary to identify the risk characteristics of each country,establish a risk early warning mechanism,as well as formulate targeted construction and investment plans.Starting from the theory,firstly,the related studies on BRI’s energy cooperation at home and abroad are sorted out,and the research ideas and structural arrangements of this study are defined.Secondly,the study analyzes and combs the current situation of coal-fired power in China and countries along the BRI,as well as the current situation and challenges of China’s participation in the construction of coal-fired power in countries along the BRI.It indicates that China’s advanced coal-fired power technology and the urgent power demand of developing countries along the BRI will achieve a win-win situation of China’s coal-fired power project investment.Later,this study analyzes the existing risk indexes at home and abroad and identifies the country investment risk of coal-fired power project on the basis of the literature review.A risk assessment index system is established form from nine dimensions(such as economic basis,solvency,and business environment)and 43 sub-indexes,which decomposes the overall risk into operational level.Then,a risk assessment evaluation framework is established which consist of Entropy,DEMATEL-AHP and simple additive weighting method(SAW).Among them,the combined Entropy and DEMATEL-AHP are employed to determine the weights of indexes,and the SAW IS USED to rank the 40 countries along the BRI regarding the coal-fired power investment risk.The results of the study show that the overall risk of coal-fired power investment in Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)nations is relatively high while the metrics of power market contributes to the largest weight.Wherein,there are one low-risk country,two lower-risk countries,12 medium-risk countries,13 high-risk countries,and 12 higher-risk countries.And the risk level for Asian and Oceanian regions is slightly lower.Moreover,Singapore has the lowest risk of coal-fired power investment,followed by New Zealand and India.Finally,this study puts forward risk response implications for the future development of relevant institutions such as power enterprises,Chinese government,policy banks and so on.Investment risk decision-making of coal-fired power plants in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative can improve the quality of the BRI’s electric power cooperation,and can be an important help to promote the long-term and steady development of electric power enterprises.The results pointed out that the overall investment risk of coal-fired power in BRI countries is relatively high.In addition,the global consensus on energy low-carbon transition and climate mitigation challenges Chinese coal-fired power enterprises in overseas investment.Therefore,coal-fired power companies have to focus on risk warnings and choose a more reasonable investment area to effectively avoid risks and obtain profits.By analyzing the state of BRI’s coal-fired power investment and establishing risk assessment model,this research can provide important theoretical reference for Chinese enterprises and capital to go out smoothly and formulate differentiated investment strategies under different risk conditions. |
PDF Full Text Request