Research On Energy Demand And Environmental Impact Of Shenyang Road Traffic Department Based On LEAP Model

With the development of the economy and the acceleration of the urbanization process,the number of motor vehicles on urban roads is also increasing rapidly.China is a country rich in coal,lack of oil and less gas.The oil consumed is heavily dependent on imports.The sharp increase in the number of motor vehicles has made the contradiction between fuel supply and demand in China more prominent.In addition,the automobile exhaust gas emitted by the motor vehicle during the driving process pollutes the atmospheric environment and poses a serious threat to the health of urban residents.In order to effectively alleviate the energy and environmental crisis,it is necessary to study the energy demand and environmental impact of motor vehicles in urban road traffic departments of China.As the central city of Northeast China,Shenyang has a large population and energy consumption.First of all,this study selected the road traffic department of Shenyang as the research object.Then,based on the LEAP(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system)model,the energy consumption and emission models of the Shenyang road traffic department were constructed.Secondly,the scenario analysis method is used to simulate the energy demand and environmental discharge status of the Shenyang Municipal Road Traffic Department from2017 to 2030 under five scenarios:the baseline scenario,promoting public transportation scenarios,improving vehicle fuel economy scenarios,promoting new energy vehicle scenarios and integrated scenarios.Finally,the inhalation factor method was used to assess the health effects and corresponding economic losses of residents with NOx,SO2,PM10,and PM2.5.The research results show that:(1)Energy demand in the baseline scenario shows a rapid upward trend,and the total energy demand will reach 10.65Mtce by 2030.Promoting public transport scenarios,improving vehicle fuel economy scenarios,and promoting energy-saving and new-energy vehicle scenarios have reduced energy demand compared to the baseline scenario.The total energy demand in 2030 is 9.68 Mtce,10.11 Mtce,and 9.26 Mtce,respectively.The total energy demand under the integrated scenario is the lowest,reaching a peak of 8.24Mtce in 2027 and 8.18Mtce in 2030,achieving the best energy saving effect.In addition,the energy demand of private passenger cars has always dominated the total energy demand.From 2017 to 2030,it accounts for more than 50%under all scenarios.(2)The emissions of CO2,CO,NOx,SO2,PM10 and PM2.5 are the largest and continuous growth in the baseline scenario.Their emissions are 31.89Mt,1.79Mt,0.21Mt,21.7Kt,6.5Kt,6.6Kt in 2030,respectively.The emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 also continued to increase under the integrated scenario.The emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 were 19.7Kt and 5.2Kt respectively in 2030.However,the emissions of CO2,CO,NOx and PM10 in the integrated scenario first increased and then decreased.The emissions of CO2,CO,NOx and PM10 reached the peaks of 24.29Mt,1.29Mt,157.4Kt and 4.97Kt in 2027,2021,2026 and 2026 respectively.The emissions of CO2,CO,NOx and PM10 were reduced to 24.28Mt,1.08Mt,155.2Kt and 4.91Kt in 2030,respectively.(3)In 2030,the economic losses caused by NOx,SO2,PM10,and PM2.5 emissions are the largest under the baseline scenario,which are 8.594 billion yuan,169 million yuan,1.013 billion yuan,and 1.566 billion yuan.The economic losses in other scenarios are reduced to varying degrees compared to the baseline scenario,with the largest reduction under the integrated scenario.In 2030,the economic losses caused by NOx,SO2,PM10 and PM2.5 under the comprehensive scenario were 6.479 billion yuan,153 million yuan,763 million yuan and 1.243 billion yuan,respectively,which were 24.61%,9.05%,24.69%and 20.64%lower than the economic losses under the baseline scenario.(4)In general,the energy demand,environmental emissions and health impacts of the Shenyang Road Traffic Department are the largest under the baseline scenario and the smallest under the integrated scenario.Three energy-saving and emission-reduction measures can reduce energy demand,environmental emissions and health impacts to varying degrees,but the promotion of energy-saving and new-energy vehicles is the best.In the future,if the road traffic department of Shenyang wants to further save energy and control emissions,it should pay special attention to the promotion and application of energy-saving and new-energy vehicles when formulating relevant energy-saving and emission reduction policies.