| Jilin Province is located near the frontier and the geographic center of Northeast Asia,and is an old industrial base in Northeast China.Jilin Province,as an economic driver in the early days of the founding of the People’s Republic of China,has made tremendous contributions to the primitive accumulation of China’s economy.However,with the deepening of reform and opening up,economic development problems have gradually become prominent,the quantity and quality of labor has declined,and the rate of return on capital and efficiency has been low.This long-term high factor input-driven economic development model,accompanied by the urgent number of factors and efficiency,is serious restricted the sustainable development of the economy.The driving force for economic growth comes from production factor inputs and total factor productivity(TFP).However,factors of production and resources are always scarce and restricted by the law of diminishing marginal returns.It is impossible to maintain longterm sustainable economic growth only by increasing the input of factors.Therefore,Jilin Province urgently needs to switch the economic growth power and pay attention to the quality and efficiency of economic development.In 2015,the government work report of our country first proposed "increasing total factor productivity",paying attention to the benefits brought by technological progress.Under the demand of the new economic normal and the development of high quality,Jilin Province should change the development mode,optimize the economic structure,switch the growth momentum,and increase the total factor productivity.This article focuses on TFP in Jilin Province.First,we measure the TFP and its growth rate and contribution rate.Analyze and compare the changes and growth rate of TFP in the regional dimension.Then we do the quantitative analysis on the factors that affect TFP,using empirical research.Analyze five aspects’ impact on TFP of Jilin,such as openness,industrial structure,research investment,human capital,government fiscal expenditure.The following main conclusions are drawn:First,from 1978 to 2015,TFP in Jilin Province generally increased and then declined,and it has been increasing in 2016,2017 and 2018.The average TFP is 0.55 and the average TFP growth rate is 0.62%.For a long time,economic growth in Jilin has been driven by high investment.The contribution rate of labor and TFP is low.The average contribution rate of TFP is 1.74%,which is about 6 percentage points lower than that of the whole country,and is in a disadvantaged position in the three northeastern provinces.Jilin Province urgently needs to transform its economic growth power,and the extensive growth model driven by high capital should be transformed into an intensive growth model.Then,empirical analysis shows that the openness to the TFP of Jilin Province is not as expected,and the effect is not significant.Jilin Province still has a big disadvantage in openness,and its effect on total factor productivity may require a long period of accumulation and transformation.Changes in the industrial structure have an inhibitory effect on the TFP.The industrial development and employment acceptance are not balanced,and the employment structure of labor between industries should be adjusted.There is a certain lag period in the impact of research investment on TFP.Human capital has a significant role in promoting total factor productivity in Jilin Province.Government fiscal expenditure failed to produce an effective driving force for the total factor productivity of Jilin Province,and caused some intervention in the economy.Aiming at the research conclusions,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve TFP of Jilin Province,points out weakness and puts forward the prospects,with a view to contributing to the development of disciplines and the booming economy of Jilin Province. |
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