Research On The Temporal And Spatial Differences, Convergence And Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity

As the foundation of the development of national economy,agriculture has made remarkable achievements since 1978.However,the drawbacks of extensive economic development also have gradually emerged,and the quality and sustainability of agricultural development have drawn attention.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)pointed out that China's economy has entered a stage of high-quality development.The mere pursuit of economic growth no longer meets the development requirements of the new era,and the quality and efficiency of economic development must be improved.As a representative indicator to judge the quality and potential of economic development,total factor productivity(TFP)has become a research hotspot.Shandong is the largest agricultural province of China and the typical representative of agricultural development,which has made great contribution to China.Based on the specific measurement of agricultural TFP in the whole province and cities,this paper attempts to take Shandong Province as a research sample,to further analyzes “How to narrow the regional difference of agricultural TFP",and to explores the feasibility of “how to propose the agricultural TFP”,and finally puts forward policy suggestions on improving agricultural TFP and promoting the coordinated development of agricultural regions.Based on the review of relevant theory and literature,on the one hand,this paper chooses agricultural input-output panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 1993 to 2017,using SFA to divide TFP growth into four parts: technological progress change,technical efficiency change,scale efficiency change and allocation efficiency change,and then,based on the measurement of agricultural TFP,this paper studies the temporal and spatial differences in the growth of agricultural TFP and the Space-time evolution of the contribution effect to clarify the current situation of agricultural development in the end.Then this paper uses stochastic convergence model to test whether the regional gap of TFP in agriculture will be narrowed and to grasp the development trend of regional agriculture;On the other hand,by theoretically constructing the factors affecting the growth of agricultural TFP,we use the Grey comprehensive correlation analysis method to explore the influence of various factors on agricultural TFP in various cities from 1994 to 2001,from 2002 to 2008 and from 2009 to 2017,in order to explore the long and short boards that promote agricultural growth in different cities and different periods and to look for new agricultural economic growth points.Empirical research draws the following conclusions:(1)The temporal changes of agriculture TFP growth trend and the detailed analysis results show that the overall agriculturalTFP growth in Shandong Province from 1993 to 2017 present characteristics of staged development,and the stable technological progress is the main source of agricultural TFP ascension.But the technology efficiency inhibits agricultural TFP to a certain extent,and the positive effect of scale deviates from the negative effect of allocation,so there is no driving force.(2)The spatial distribution characteristics and detailed analysis results of agricultural TFP growth show that the unbalanced growths in various regions of Shandong Province are all driven by technological progress,and the difference in scale efficiency and allocative efficiency becomes the decisive factor restricting the coordinated development of different regions.(3)From the perspective of the time and space evolution of agricultural TFP contribution effect,TFP has gradually become the driving force of agricultural economic growth in the whole province and cities.(4)The random convergence test indicates that the regional gap of agricultural TFP growth in Shandong Province will gradually be narrowed and eventually become stable.(5)From the perspective of the factors influencing the growth of agricultural TFP,the factors promoting the improvement of agricultural TFP in the whole province and regions are gradually shifting from mechanization,industrialization and urbanization to agricultural research and development investment and marketization.The impact of financial support policies and irrigation water efficiency is not strong.Based on the research conclusion,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: Firstly,technological progress should be taken as the leading role and innovation-driven development strategy should be carried out,so as to achieve high-quality development of agricultural economy.Secondly,we should optimize agricultural management and explore the potential power of technical efficiency to promote agricultural TFP growth.Thirdly,we should optimize the resource allocation to scientifically guide the development of agricultural factor market.Fourthly,we should adopt the differentiation strategy and develop regional cooperation and joint innovation to bring into play the spatial spillover effect of agricultural TFP.Fifthly,the government need to strengthen financial support for agriculture and agricultural infrastructure,and strengthen weak links,so as to create new driving forces for agricultural economic growth.