Research On The Updating Technology And Application Of IO Table Based On The FSR Method

The input-output table is an indispensable intermediate link connecting economic theory and practical research problems,and has a very wide range of applied research fields.However,judging from the actual publication of the input-output table,the time interval between the published input-output table can reach two to four years.There are some limitations,for example,you can only use the published input-output tables for the interval year to study the problem,and you cannot combine it with the econometric model.Based on this consideration,many scholars have begun to study the issue of updating the input-output table in the unannounced years and the problem of forecasting the inputoutput table.As far as the update work of the existing middle years is concerned,there are three main methods,which are RAS,CE and LS.But unfortunately,these methods may cause loss of prior information,and from the existing research results,most scholars only use the information of forward or backward known data,only few scholars update the middle-year input-output table with both backward and forward information.Therefore,this paper introduces the idea of FSR into the update of the input-output table,and the method of simultaneously updating the input-output table with the original matrix information before and after will make the basic data more accurate and the compilation result more reliable.The research contents of this paper can be divided into four aspects.The first is related theoretical research,which mainly lays the theoretical foundation for the compilation and application research of this paper.Specifically,this article sorts out the economic principles,table structure,and basic meanings related to the input-output table.At the same time,it also elaborates the method of FSR used in the article,including its basic ideas and sampling methods and steps.In addition,this article also elaborates on the theoretical necessity of the interactive development of strategic emerging industries and modern service industries from three perspectives: micro,medium,and macro,and establishes a theoretical basis for the applied research work in this paper.The second is the design of the input-output table compilation method,which mainly discusses how to compile a complete input-output table for the 19 × 19 sector from 2002 to 2018.Specifically,for the existing input-output tables,considering the difference in the number of departments between each table,you only need to perform data consolidation and other processing according to the department classification specified in the article.For the years with missing data,the intermediate flow and value-added quadrants are mainly compiled through the FSR and the GRAS method,and the final use quadrants are compiled through the combination of GDP accounting data and the final use structural coefficient,and then based on the input-output balance relationship,and the corresponding quadrants are added to obtain the total input and output data.In addition,this paper also designs a test method for updating the input-output table in the middle year from a theoretical level to verify the reliability of the proposed method.In addition,this paper also forecasts the input-output table through the overall idea of "estimating the total amount and decomposing the structure".Specifically,using the time series model or the existing GDP accounting data to estimate the total amount,and then use the state space model to calculate the corresponding structural coefficient,and then use the calculated structural coefficient to decompose the total amount to obtain the components.The third is the display of the actual compilation process of the input-output table.Limited in space,this article uses 2003 as an example to introduce the compilation steps and results of each quadrant in the unannounced year in detail.In addition,this paper uses 2015 as the target matrix,and 2012 and 2017 as the original matrix before and after,and the results updated by the TLS method,MCE method and other methods are compared with the updated results of this article.The results show that the FSR-GRAS proposed in this paper has higher accuracy.In addition,this article takes 2018 data as an example,and introduces in detail how to perform total volume prediction and structure decomposition for each quadrant data to obtain a complete 2018 input-output forecast table.The fourth is the application research of the input-output table,which is based on the 2002-2018 input-output table prepared above,and measures the interactive development of strategic emerging industries and modern service industries.Specifically,on the basis of department classification and measurement index design,the development level of strategic emerging industries over the years has been studied.In addition,this article also measures the interactive demand and impact of strategic emerging industries and modern service industries.The research on the interactive development between the two industries over the years.There are two main innovations in this article.The first is to introduce the idea of FSR into the update of the input-output table,which has greatly improved the accuracy of the basic data based on the update process.The combination of table update and forecast extension not only improves the timeliness of the input-output table application,but also makes it possible to analyze the problem in combination with a large number of econometric models.Secondly,based on the 2002-2018 input-output table time series data compiled in this article,the interactive development between strategic emerging industries and modern service industries was measured.Different from previous scholars who only used data from a certain year or several years to study,this article reflects the changes in the interactive development of strategic emerging industries and modern service industries from the perspective of time series.