The Evolution Of Cultivated Land Resources In Jinan Metropolitan Area And Optimization Research

Arable land is the basis of human survival,not only undertakes the responsibility of ensuring the supply of agricultural food products,national food security,but also has the functions of soil and water conservation,regulation of Ecological Environment,inheritance of agricultural culture,leisure tourism.In the process of urbanization,a large amount of cultivated land is occupied,which makes the problem of cultivated land become a problem that can not be ignored in the development of our country.By selecting Jinan Metropolitan area as the research area and combining with GIS spatial analysis method,this paper analyzes the quantitative evolution law of cultivated land resources by using Markov model and transfer Matrix,respectively,analysis of spatial diversity of cultivated land resources evolution based on ESDA model.The spatial econometric model is used to analyze the main driving forces of cultivated land resource change in Jinan metropolitan area in order to combine the cultivated land quantity control with social economic factors.The main findings and conclusions are as follows:First of all,using the seven land use data from 1990 to 2017,this paper analyzes the cultivated land resources in Jinan metropolitan area during the past 27 years,and studies the spatio-temporal evolution of cultivated land resources from the aspects of quantity,structure and spatial transformation.On the time scale,the cultivated land area of Jinan Metropolitan area has been decreasing for 27 years,and the decrease trend of the cultivated land resources around the central town is the most significant,which has decreased by1516.07 km~2,the proportion of cultivated land resources in Jinan metropolitan area shows a large spatial positive correlation,and shows a high-high spatial agglomeration effect in the west of the metropolitan area and a low-low spatial agglomeration effect in the east of the metropolitan area.Secondly,the driving factors of cultivated land resources in Jinan metropolitan area are analyzed by using spatial econometric model.Per capita grain possession,grain commodity rate,grain sown area at the end of the year,total power of agricultural machinery and precipitation constitute the positive driving factors affecting the proportion of cultivated land resources in Jinan metropolitan area,urbanization Rate,location advantage,fixed asset investment and main ecological area are the reverse driving factors which affect the proportion of cultivated land resources in Jinan metropolitan area.The results of this study are of guiding significance for revealing the internal driving mechanism of cultivated land quantity change and seeking policy innovation of cultivated land protection.Finally,according to the influence of driving factors on the evolution dynamics of cultivated land resources in Jinan metropolitan area,this paper puts forward corresponding optimization schemes for cultivated land protection from five aspects:urbanization,ecological environment,intensive management,Commodity and industrial cluster.