Spatial And Temporal Change Simulation Of Urban And Rural Construction Land In Zhengzhou Urban Based On CA-MAS

Spatial and temporal simulation of urban and rural construction land is an important part of land use change research.As the central city of China and the central hub urban in the central plains city group,Zhengzhou should be paid more attention to its high-quality sustainable expansion.The spatio-temporal change simulation of urban and rural construction land in Zhengzhou and the prediction of future development direction,the optimization of Zhengzhou urban and rural construction land layout,and improve the level of Zhengzhou urban and rural construction land intensive utilization,improve the quality standard of the national spatial planning of Zhengzhou city,promote the development of Zhongyuan urban agglomeration has a certain theoretical and practical guidance.In this paper,on the basis of related research at home and abroad,using 2010 and 2015 and 2018 remote sensing image interpretation of the data of land utilization in Zhengzhou city,respectively,based on the CA model,MAS model,CA-MAS model,the model precision,on the basis of comparative analysis,build the optimal model of urban and rural construction land expansion simulation,using the model of Zhengzhou urban and rural construction land expansion in 2025 to predict the pattern of space and time simulation,and validated on the simulation accuracy,for the national spatial planning of Zhengzhou city,Zhengzhou city urban and rural construction land layout and regulation provides the basis.This paper consists of six chapters,including the following:(1)The simulation and method of urban and rural construction land expansion research.On the basis of reviewing the relevant research at home and abroad,the main models and methods used in this research are introduced and explained in detail,and the applicability and parameter selection of these models are demonstrated and explained.(2)Analysis of spatial pattern of urban and rural construction land in Zhengzhou.Based on the land use data of Zhengzhou in 2010 and 2018,the spatial analysis function of Arc GIS was used to make the land use transfer matrix,analyze the land use transfer situation,and analyze the change of land use pattern of Zhengzhou by combining the land use change area,changing dynamic attitude,landscape pattern index,spreading distribution and other indicators.(3)Construction of CA-MAS model of urban and rural construction land expansion in Zhengzhou city.Selection effects of Zhengzhou urban and rural construction land expansion factors index,build CA model and MAS model,respectively,based on the CA model,MAS model,CA-MAS model simulation of Zhengzhou urban and rural construction land spatio-temporal change,analysis of three kinds of simulation scenario results compared with the actual area of consistency and spatial coincidence degree,determine the optimal simulation model.(4)Prediction and analysis of spatial and temporal pattern of urban and rural construction land in Zhengzhou.Based on the constructed CA-MAS model,the spatial and temporal pattern and its characteristics of urban and rural construction land in Zhengzhou in 2025 were predicted and simulated by combining the indexes of urban and rural construction area change,expansion intensity,landscape pattern index,spreading distribution,and octasia.Put forward strategies and Suggestions to optimize the spatial pattern of urban and rural construction land in Zhengzhou.Through the above research,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)From 2010 to 2018,urban and rural construction land and cultivated land in Zhengzhou were the main types of mutual transformation.The number of land use patches increased significantly,the largest patch area in the land use type decreased,and the landscape aggregation index also decreased.It indicates that the agglomeration of land use in Zhengzhou is not high during the study period.Landscape diversity index and landscape evenness index are on the rise.(2)The simulation results based on CA model,MAS model and ca-mas model show that the simulation accuracy of ca-mas model is the highest,with an area test error of 4.72% and a spatial contrast test accuracy of 89.03%,which can be used to predict the spatial pattern of urban and rural construction land in Zhengzhou in 2025.(3)Simulation results of urban and rural construction land pattern in Zhengzhou in 2025 based on camas model show that:(1)The average annual growth rate of urban and rural construction land in Zhengzhou from 2018 to 2025 is 2.45%,lower than the average annual growth rate of 2010 to 2018(4.02%),which is consistent with China's current national policy of economizing and intensive utilization of urban and rural construction land and excavating stock and empty increment.(2)From 2010 to 2018,the downtown area of Zhengzhou expanded relatively quickly,with a rate higher than that of surrounding counties(cities).From 2018 to 2025,affected by the policy,the land expansion rate of surrounding counties and cities for urban and rural construction will be roughly the same as that of central cities.(3)In terms of expansion form,from 2010 to 2018,the marginal type was the main type,while the filling type was the auxiliary type,and there was spontaneous spread.From 2018 to 2025,there will be mainly the coexistence of filling and marginal types,while the type of spontaneous spread is basically non-existent,which is related to various national and local policy interventions.(4)In terms of expansion direction,from 2010 to 2018,the expansion in the southsoutheast direction and the north-northwest direction was relatively slow,while the expansion in the other six directions was relatively fast.Expansion will continue to increase in all directions between 2018 and 2025.Among them,the obvious expansion direction is the north-northeast,northeast-east,east-southeast development of Zhengzhou.