Research On Action Mechanism And Quantitative Method Of Adaptive Utilization Of Water Resources

As the most abundant and distributed resource in the world,water resource is the basis of all production and life activities.However,the continuous changes of external environmental conditions such as climate change and human activities not only change the natural water cycle process of the basin,but also affect the development and utilization of water resources.This leads to the imbalance of the development and evolution of human water relationship.Therefore,under the influence of the increasing global climate change and human activities,the development and utilization of water resources should adapt to the changes of water resources,social economy and ecoenvironment caused by the superposition of natural and human factors,and coordinate the human-water relationship through a series of measures.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to realize the rational development and utilization of regional water resources,the sustainable development of economy and society,the comprehensive management of water resources and the protection of ecological environment.The domestic and foreign research present situation and existing problems are summarized in this paper,then the study on the theory,method and application of adaptive utilization of water resources is began with the concept and connotation of adaptive utilization of water resources.The research content mainly includes the following aspects:(1)The mechanism of adaptive utilization of water resources has been studied.Based on the interpretation of the concept and connotation of water resources adaptive utilization,the basic characteristics of water resources adaptive utilization is proposed.In addition,the research on the mechanism of adaptive utilization of water resources under the influence of climate change and human activities is carried out from the interaction among water resources,social economy and eco-environment.This lays a foundation for identifying the factors that can characterize the mutual adaptation of water resources,social economy and eco-environment.(2)Quantitative index system of adaptive utilization of water resources has been built.Based on the previous research results and starting from the application rules of adaptive utilization of water resources,four quantitative criteria for adaptive utilization of water resources have been put forward.Furthermore,a quantitative index system consisting of target level,criterion level,classification level and index level is constructed,which involves the natural and social service functions of water resources,the renewable capacity of water resources,the level of economic and social development,the status of eco-environment and the level of governance.(3)The evaluation method of adaptive utilization of water resources has been established.According to the quantitative index system of adaptive utilization of water resources,a set of calculation methods and evaluation standard for evaluating the adaptive state of water resources,social economy and eco-environment have been put forward.The model of grey relation projection calculation based on TOPSIS is used to quantify the comprehensive development index of water resources,social economy and eco-environment,and the coupling coordination model is used to describe the degree of mutual adaptation between two systems and three systems,so as to analyze the adaptability level between systems and the whole system.(4)Taking Xinjiang as an example,the proposed quantitative research method of adaptive utilization of water resources is applied to Xinjiang to calculate the adaptability among water resources,social economy and eco-environment from 2004 to 2017.The characteristics of its temporal and spatial evolution are analyzed.Then the system dynamics model of adaptive utilization of water resources in Xinjiang is built by using the embedded system dynamics theory.Through the simulation and prediction of the water resources adaptive utilization level of Xinjiang under different schemes from 2017 to 2050,the optimal mode to adapt to the development of Xinjiang can be selected.