Analysis Of A Three-Dimensional Carbon Price,Energy Consumption,and Economic Development Dynamical System

With the development of social economy,a large amount of fossil energy is consumed and greenhouse gases are discharged.In order to achieve the targets of emission reduction,China has successively established eight carbon markets.At the same time,carbon price becomes an important part of the carbon market.How to improve the carbon market and reduce energy intensity in reducing carbon emissions has become an academic interest while maintaining the sustainable development of the social economy.The contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Dynamic analysis of carbon price dynamical system.First,a three-dimensional dynamical system(carbon price dynamical system)for carbon price,energy consumption,and economic development is established based on the complex interactions among carbon price,energy consumption,and economic development.Then the dynamic behavior of the system under different parameters is studied.The corresponding phase is used to find out the complex behaviors such as equilibrium point,periodic orbit,and chaotic attractor.At the same time,the existence of chaos is further studied by dissipative analysis.Finally,the chaotic phenomenon of the carbon price dynamical system is verified by the Lyapunov exponent spectrum and bifurcation diagram of the system.(2)China is taken as an example for scenario analysis of the system.First,the data of carbon emissions,energy consumption,and economic development are obtained from the China Emissions Exchange and the China Statistical Yearbook.The weighted average method and analytic hierarchy process are used to preprocess the data.Then the genetic algorithm is used to identify the parameters of the actual system,and the phase of the actual system under the identification parameters is stable,which is consistent with the actual situation.Finally,the evolution of carbonprice,economic development,carbon emissions,and energy intensity are analyzed under different scenarios.The results show that the increase of carbon market activity leads to the increase of carbon price,carbon emissions,economic development,while the energy intensity will be decrease.Carbon price,economic development,carbon emissions,and energy intensity all show a downward trend with the increase of carbon market covering industries.However,the carbon price is not significantly affected by the increase of market activity and carbon market covering more industries.