Study On China's Carbon Emissions Market And Price Fluctuation

The carbon emissions trading market is a new way of marketization for carbon emission reduction,and China began to gradually establish a domestic carbon trading market in 2010.The price fluctuation of the carbon market can not only reflect the transaction information of the carbon market,but also measure the actual value of the carbon trading,which is beneficial to the macro regulation and control of the supervision department,but also provide the basis for the market participants to make the transaction decision and avoid the risk.Therefore,this paper collects the historical transaction data of China's carbon emissions market,and describes the trading volume and monthly closing price of 7 China carbon emissions trading pilot projects in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Shenzhen,Tianjin,Hubei and Chongqing,and sums up the transaction status and change trend of the carbon market in each region.Then according to the characteristics of the carbon market,this paper selects the representative Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong and Hubei pilot,and uses the wavelet denoising method to denoise the four pilot price returns and establish the time series model.The results showed that the wavelet denoising can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the model.In addition,the price return rate of Beijing is in accordance with the GARCH model,and the rates of return in Shanghai,Guangdong and Hubei conform to the EGARCH model,and the coefficient of asymmetric terms in the model coefficient is positive.The price volatility of the three experiments had a leverage effect,and the price fluctuation of the carbon market was more affected by the positive income than the negative return,which is different from the general financial data price return sequence.Finally,based on the analysis of the price fluctuation of China's current carbon emission pilot,the policy recommendations are put forward.