Research On Risk Measurement Of Price Fluctuation In China Carbon Finance Trading Market

Due to the large amount of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide,a series of environmental problems caused by global warming are affecting people's production and life.Based on this,the carbon emission trading system originating from the Kyoto Protocol has gradually become one of the most effective means of reducing emissions.Countries around the world have established a carbon trading market to provide a market-oriented means for lowcarbonization in the country.As the world's largest carbon emitter,China has also actively responded to the international call,advocated energy conservation and emission reduction,proposed to actively control carbon emissions,and vigorously promote the construction of a national carbon trading market.The study of price volatility risk in China's carbon financial trading market not only guides investors to avoid carbon trading risks,stimulates the trading activity of carbon financial markets,but also helps to improve China's unified carbon emission trading system and establish necessary price stability mechanisms and Risk early warning and supervision mechanism to improve risk management and control capabilities in the carbon financial market.This paper explores the current carbon financial trading market from the perspective of risk measurement.By constructing a risk measurement model to measure the price fluctuation risk of China's regional carbon financial market,this paper deeply analyzes the current carbon price fluctuation transmission mechanism and impact mechanism,according to price fluctuations.The cause of the identification and analysis of risk factors,and accordingly provide a theoretical basis for the government's relevant regulatory authorities and policy-making departments to further market regulation and market regulation.First of all,this paper combs the basic theories of carbon finance concept and its theoretical origin,economic interpretation of price volatility,risk management theory and risk measurement method.Secondly,this paper summarizes the development status of carbon finance market at home and abroad,and elaborates on the actual construction of China's carbon finance market from the aspects of relevant policy support,construction of carbon exchanges and participation of financial institutions.Then,based on the Expectile theory,combined with the CAViaR model,a conditional autoregressive Expectile(CARE)model is proposed.Based on this,the corresponding model is improved.The SAVCARE,AS-CARE and IG-CARE models are selected for the model.The risk measurement study of the carbon financial market calculates the VaR and ES of the sequence.Finally,this paper takes Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Shenzhen and Hubei as the research objects,and uses CARE risk measurement model to calculate the VaR and ES values of China's carbon financial market,and empirically analyzes the domestic pilot carbon quotas.The status quo of trading,volume changes,price fluctuation characteristics and causes,market risk and influencing factors,and put forward corresponding policy measures to deal with the impact of price fluctuations in carbon financial markets.