Safety Performance Evaluation Of The Air Traffic Management System Based On System Dynamics

Safety performance is an important measurement for the overall safety level of the Air Traffic Management(ATM)system,and it's of great practical significance for performance improvement to study the safety performance evaluation,identify short slab indexes,and find out the causes.In the current research,the dynamic analysis of performance is relatively few,the evaluation mainly focuses on reflecting the current safety level of the system,but does not analyze the future trend of performance.In order to realize the predictive analysis of safety performance,the system dynamics method is adopted to establish a performance evaluation model.With the support of an Air Traffic Management Sub-Bureaus,an index system is established.According to the thinking of system dynamics,the safety management framework of ATM is studied from three dimensions: management,safety status,monitoring and early warning.And a causality diagram is obtained by analyzing the possible relationship between the indexes.Based on the causal relationship between the indexes,Analytic Network Process(ANP)method is used to calculate the index weights.And then,according to the causality diagram,six in-tree models are established with the first-level indexes as the sub-goal.The six models can be combined into a whole performance evaluation model through the common variables.Based on the index scoring rules and index weights,the relation equations of indexes are determined,and the performance trend based on the index relation network is obtained by simulation.Finally,the application of performance prediction is analyzed from three aspects: finding the causes of performance reduction,performance improvement measures and continuous improvement concerns.By using system dynamics model to analyze performance,we can not only find the index with defects or hidden dangers in reverse,but also predict the impact of decision changes on safety in advance,ensure the effectiveness of decision-making,and improve the safety output of the system.Theoretical analysis shows that it is feasible to use the system dynamics method to evaluate the performance under the explicit variable relationship,and the dynamic prediction of the method can better embody the concept of safety management than the traditional index evaluation.