Research On Prediction Of Reverse Logistics Recycling Of Photovoltaic Cells Based On System Dynamics

As the reserves of energy are limited,the consumption of coal,oil,natural gas and other energy sources is on a high upward trend,leading to the depletion of non-renewable energy sources in China and the increasing environmental problems.Solar energy is characterized by cleanliness and infinity and becomes an important renewable energy source.With the widespread use of photovoltaic cells,China will generate a large number of waste photovoltaic cells in the future.The recycling of used batteries will not only reduce the environmental pollution caused by waste,but also reuse metal and non-metal resources to form a benign resource recycling chain.The prediction of-the amount of reverse recovery of photovoltaic cells can obtain the specific amount of photovoltaic cell recovery,help to construct a reasonable recycling mode of the photovoltaic industry,formulate an efficient recycling strategy,and form a specific resource planning strategy.In this paper,the system dynamics method is used to predict the reverse recycling quantity of photovoltaic cells,which has important theoretical and practical significance for carrying out reverse logistics activities in the future.This paper firstly uses the literature method and data review method to summarize and comb the domestic and international research results on the reverse recovery of photovoltaic cells,system dynamics reverse logistics recovery prediction and evaluation model,and the field research method for the development and recovery of photovoltaic cells.In ummary,in recent years,China has introduced perfect photovoltaic planning,supervision,fiscal and taxation policies,photovoltaic power generation and photovoltaic installed capacity have increased year by year,forming a complete photovoltaic industry chain covering the upper,middle and lower reaches,but China's photovoltaic cell reverse recycling is still developing.In the initial stage,the amount of scrapped PV cells will increase dramatically after 2020.Secondly,based on the overview of photovoltaic cell development and recycling in China,the key factors affecting the reverse recycling of photovoltaic cells and the causal relationship between various factors are constructed,including the total demand for electricity,photovoltaic power generation,photovoltaic power generation demand,and photovoltaic installed capacity.And photovoltaic cell recovery,battery recovery and silicon,silver,steel,aluminum alloy,glass,and plastic recycling quantities,then use Vensin PLE software to build a photovoltaic cell reverse recovery prediction system,using the Network Analytic Hierarchy Process(ANP)model to characterize and Quantitative analysis of the weight between the PV power demand ratio indicators.Finally,taking an urban area as an example,the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the region in 2010-2030 is simulated.After 20 years of battery life cycle,the simulation predicts the amount of photovoltaic cells recovered and the amount of recycling of each resource from 2030 to 2060.Change the photovoltaic cell recovery rate and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation demand,simulate the change range of the amount of recycling,and put forward reasonable suggestions for the reverse recycling of photovoltaic cells.The research results show that the proportion of photovoltaic power generation and recovery efficiency have an important impact on the amount of photovoltaic cell recycling.It can increase the photovoltaic recycling standards and policies and improve the stability of photovoltaic cell recycling by strengthening technological innovation and research and development.