Study On Temporal And Spatial Evolution And Simulation Prediction Of Land Use In Kelan Watershed

Land is the foundation of everything,and one of the important material foundations needed for human survial and development.Land change is closely related to human survival and social development.In recent years,China's urbanization process is speeding up,the economic development of various regions has been rapidly improved,the demand for land has been expanded,and the degree of land use has been further increased.In this process,it will inevitably increase the degree of damage to land quality,which will have a negative impact on people's living environment and local sustainable development.Therefore,understanding the characteristics of land use patterns and changes in land cover,subsequent development rules and driving factors,and predicting future land use conditions based on this,is of particular importance for the development and management of land resources and the sustainable development of society.This paper takes the Kelan Watershed as the research object and uses remote sensing and geographic information technology to obtain the land use type map of the research area from 2008,2013 and 2017.This paper analyzes the current situation of land use in Kelan Watershed through the interpretation data of each period,and analyzes the influencing factors of the change characteristics and distribution characteristics of the study area in combination with the land use change research model and DEM data.Based on this analysis,the land use type pattern in 2027 basin is predicted.The results are as follows:(1)Based on ENVI and Arc GIS platform,the spatial-temporal dynamic database of land use in Kelan River Basin in 2008,2013 and 2017 is established by using support vector method,and the distribution map of land use types in three phases is obtained.The research uses the best factor index method to select the appropriate image band group,and uses image fusion to increase the resolution of the remote sensing image,thereby improving the interpretation accuracy.(2)In this study,the dynamic degree of land use,the degree of land use and the transfer matrix model are used to analyze the characteristics of land use change in the basin.It is concluded that the area of forest land and construction land in the study area increased in 2008-2017,while the area of waters,cultivated land and other land decreased.Among them,the fastest growing area is construction land,and the fastest decreasing is other land;the conversion between forest land,cultivated land and construction land is the closest.The waters is mainly converted into cultivated land,forest land and construction land,and the conversion area of other land with forest land and cultivated land is the largest;the comprehensive index of land use in each period is greater than the national average index,and the state of land use is the adjustment period.(3)Thtough spatial superposition analysis of the elevation and slope data and land use types in the study area,the relationship between each type of distribution and topography is obtained.The distribution of land use types is greatly influenced by human social activities.The forest land and cultivated land in the study area are less distributed at lower elevations and gentle slopes,and the elevation and slope values show a relationship of first increasing and then decreasing.The distribution characteristics of the waters are opposite to this,and other land uses have weaker relationships with elevation and slope.Expect for forest land,various types are distributed in low altitude(56m?185m)and gentle slope(0°?15°)areas.(4)This paper quantitatively analyzes the relationship between land use type distribution and driving factors such as roads,rivers,elevations,etc.,establishes suitability atlas based on the relationship between land use type change characteristics and various influencing factors,and forecasts the distribution characteristics of land use types in 2017 by using CA-Markov model.The Kappa test results show that the prediction results are similar to the actual distribution,and the model is qualified to predict the spatial distribution of future land use types in Kelan Watershed.According to the prediction results,the distribution area of forest land,waters and construction land in Kelan Watershed will gradually increase in 2027,the increase area is 50.9km~2,0.38km~2,21.3km~2.While the area of cultivated land and other land areas will gradually decrease,and the changes are-59.62km~2,-12.96km~2,respectively.Among them,the arable land and forest land change range is large,the constrction land and other land use change degree is similar,the waters remained basically stable.