Spatial Simulation And Analysis Of Land Use And Land Cover Change Based On GIS Technology And Logistic-CA-Markov Model

Land use and land cover change(LUCC),as an important driving force and core field of global environmental change,is a hot topic in the academic circle.Analyzing the land use types in different spatial and temporal evolution,is conducive to enhancing the understanding of the process of land use change in the region,also can provide a decision-making basis for the scientific management of land,so as to achieve the sustainable utilization of land resources.The spatial simulation of regional land use is of great practical significance to explore the transformation of scale and to understand the process of land use change and driving mechanism.This paper takes Longhai country of Fujian Province as the study area based on the data of TM remote sensing image in 2002,the second national land survey data in 2008,and land use change in Longhai country in 2014.Land use quantity structure model,transition matrix,fractal characteristics and space center migration model are used to analyze the change and evolvement rule of land use pattern of Longhai country from 2002 to 2014.With the help of GIS spatial analysis technology,designed 7 spatial scales(50m×50m,75m×75m,100m×100m,125m×125m,150m×150m,175m×175m,200m×200m).Using Logistic regression model to take the spatial statistical analysis,it has chosen 10 kinds of drive factors that has made important contribution to this area.Based on the best simulation scale selection,combing Logistic regression model and CA-Markov model predict the natural trend scenario and urban planning and regional development scenario of land use/coverage change of Longhai country in 2020.The results show that:(1)The land use/coverage change of Longhai country had a strong spatial and temporal variation.The cultivated land,forest land,water area showed a trend of decrease in Longhai country from 2002 to 2014,the reduction of cultivated land was the biggest,reaching 4612.54hm2.The construction land showed a trend of rapid increase,which increased 7035.56 hm2 in the past 12 years.Land use type did not show a dramatic change in the gravity center removal during 2002-2014,but the change of local migration was still obvious.Land use spatial form by complex tended to be simple,spatial structure of land use developed from unstable to stable state.(2)According to the results of the model Logistic regression coefficient Beta which shows that the correlation characteristics of land-use changes in spatial pattern and its driving force factor exist between certain scale,present the characteristics of "the scale effect".(3)The research designed 7 space scales,all these land use models are validated by an ROC method.The results indicate that 125m×125m is an significant unit for simulating the distribution of land use types in Longhai country.In the 125m×125m scale,ROC value of the cultivated land is 0.825,garden land is 0.726 and forest land is 0.735,construction land is 0.843,water area is 0.715,other area is 0.704,degree is greater than 0.700,degree is rather good.(4)The predicted results of the coupled Logistic-CA-Markov model shows that:in the natural development scenario,a large number of cultivated land in Longhai country will be occupied,the contradiction relation between human and land intensified.From 2014 to 2020,the cultivated land will reduce 2909.74 hm2,meanwhile the construction land will increase 8734.01 hm2 within the next six years.In urban planning and regional development scenario,due to the impact of policies,cultivated land will increase 192.46 hm2 in the next six years,the growth of construction land will be slower,increasing 991.89 hm2.It shows that the implementation of constraints for land use policies and regulations is helpful to relieve contradiction of population and land to a certain extent,so as to achieve the sustainable utilization of land resources.