Study On The Interactive Coupling Relation Of Tourism-Urbanization-Water Resources Security In Zhoushan Islands

Since the 21 st century,tourism,as a vigorous sunrise industry,has gradually occupied a strategic position in the development of modern economy,and its advantages of linking related industries and coordinating the comprehensive development of society are an important source of power to promote the process of regional urbanization.Urbanization is an important potential and driving force for the country to realize modernization and maintain steady economic development.With the continuous advancement of urbanization,a series of social and economic structural changes have directly or indirectly promoted the level of tourism consumption,constantly optimized the tourism industry structure,and promoted the high-quality development of tourism.As an irreplaceable strategic element in social development,water resources are indispensable special economic resources in the process of tourism development and urbanization.Safeguarding its security plays a decisive role in the development of tourism and urbanization.Therefore,on the premise of ensuring water resources security,it is an important link in the sustainable development of regional social economy to give full play to the linkage effect and agglomeration effect of tourism industry to drive the process of regional urbanization,enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of regional economy and promote economic growth through the orderly promotion of urbanization,so as to realize the benign interaction among the three.As a marginal area far from the mainland,the social development of island area is constrained by both geospatial isolation and resource shortage.The internal ecological and economic systems are susceptible to external interference,showing sensitive and fragile characteristics.Tourism,as a new industry,has gradually become an irreplaceable pillar industry in island areas in recent years,and it is also a strategic choice to enhance economic strength.Promoting urbanization is also an inevitable way to improve infrastructure and quality of life in island areas.However,the lack of freshwater resources in island areas has always restricted the efficient and high-quality development of tourism and urbanization.Therefore,to effectively promote the coordination and interaction between tourism developments,urbanization construction and water resources security in island areas is of positive significance for achieving sustainable socio-economic development.Taking Zhoushan Islands as the research object,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of Zhoushan Islands tourism-urbanization-water resources security system on the basis of theoretical analysis of the interaction and coupling relationship among tourism,urbanization and water resources security,and through co-integration test,causality test,error correction model,coupling degree model and coupling coordination degree.The interactive coupling relationship between tourism,urbanization and water resources security system in Zhoushan Islands from 2001 to 2016 was measured by using the model method.The results show that:(1)The comprehensive evaluation index of tourism,urbanization and water resources security system shows an upward trend,but the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources security system fluctuates greatly and grows slowly.(2)There is a positive long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term fluctuation between tourism,urbanization and water resources security system,and the three deviate from the long-term equilibrium in the short term.The trend of the state will be corrected soon.(3)The relationship between tourism and urbanization is Granger causality,which promotes each other obviously.The positive and negative effects of tourism and urbanization on water resources security coexist and play their respective roles in different periods,while the driving role of water resources security on tourism and urbanization development is not significant.(4)During the research period,the coupling coordination degree of the three systems showed a continuous growth trend,from serious imbalance to intermediate coordination,but the coupling coordination degree was still low.The three-system coupling coordination type has undergone the evolution process from the advanced urbanization development type to the advanced tourism development type,and the phenomenon that the development of tourism and urbanization exceeds the water resources carrying threshold persistently appears,and the water resources security becomes the restriction coupling coordination degree further raised.(5)In different periods,the influence rates,modes and properties of each factor on the coupling coordination degree are different,and the influence modes can be divided into fivetypes: linear increment and decline,non-linear U-type increment,inverted U-type increment and decline,and the non-linear influence is the main influence mode.Based on the above conclusions,from the perspective of sustainable development of Zhoushan Islands,the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the coordinated development of tourism,urbanization and water resources security.