Comprehensive Evaluation Of Water Resources Security Risk In Heilongjiang Province During The Period Of Grain Production Capacity Improvement

Along with the economic and social progress,population continues to increase,with the accelerating urbanization phenomenon such as the human demand for water is far beyond the supply of water resources,force the society to "frequent floods and fragile ecological environment" in the direction of the development,caused by the imbalance between the supply and demand of water resources shortage of water resources become the serious challenges facing the 21 st century,and the water resources security risk which caused by the shortage of water resources are also restricts the economic and social progress.To explore the causes and mechanisms of water resources shortage,to study the coordination between social and economic development and water resources,to formulate a management system to cope with water resources shortage and to take effective measures to realize the virtuous circle between water resources and economic society has become a hot issue in current research.Based on the water resources security risk evaluation for resear ch purposes,to economic-social-ecological overall development as the guiding ideology,according to the existing water resources problem,13 level city of heilongjiang province and its comprehensive evaluation of water resources security risk,reduce the risk of water resources protection measures are put forward,to realize the harmonious development of water resources and economy,promote the progress of the society.Combined with water resources security risk definition,the first model using grey correlation TOPSIS model and 13 level city of heilongjiang province water resources shortage situation,comprehensive analysis and utilization of water resources input-output tables related theory and method for regional water resources and economic system to e valuate the degree of correlation between various departments,through the analysis of representative industry water zoning map of typical years,the production capacity of grain period(2003-2015)and 13 district cities comprehensive analysis and evaluation on the security risk,as to provide theoretical basis for the development of regional economic and social progress.The main contents of this study are as follows:(1)Analysis of the current situation of water resources utilization: this paper analyzes the current situation of natural resources,industrial and agricultural production and the development and utilization of water resources in heilongjiang province,determines the important role played by water resources,and puts forward the existing problems in the process of water resources utilization in heilongjiang province and its 13 prefecture-level cities.On the basis of clarifying the actual problems,specific improvement measures and the improvement of relevant policies and systems are put forward to alleviate the problem of low water resources security degree in the process of social and economic development of Heilongjiang province.(2)Risk assessment of water resources shortage in Heilongjiang province: as the largest grain-producing province in China,the risk of water resources shortage in Heilongjiang province gradually increases while pursuing the continuous growth of agricultural economy.In this paper,theentropy weight method and the TOPSIS model improved by the gray correlation theory we re used to comprehensively evaluate the water resource shortage risk in Heilongjiang province and its 13 prefecture-level cities during the period of grain production capacity improvement.The results show that the risk of water resource shortage in heilon gjiang province shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,among which the risk of water resource shortage is generally high during the "eleventh five-year plan" period,and the risk of water resource shortage drops to moderate level year by year after the "twelfth five-year plan" period.From the perspective of spatial and temporal evolution,the water resource shortage situation of 13 prefecture-level cities in heilongjiang province presents the risk distribution characteristics of "high east-west,low south-north",and at the same time,the east-west,west-south direction of the provincial capital Harbin presents the radiation diffusion trend of increasingly severe shortage risk.(3)Input-output analysis of water resources in heilongjiang province,the utilization of water resources in heilongjiang province and the combination of national economic sectors,by formulating water resources input-output table,the calculation of water consumption,water use efficiency and water affinity index,analysis of grain production during the period of water resources in heilongjiang province in the important position of economic growing process,and;The classification standards for water use industry shall be formulated,and the industry shall be divided according to the water use situation of the provincial economic system: Construction belongs to the high water use efficiency of water industry,industrial,and transportation and postal service belongs to the low water use efficiency of water industry,othe r industries(including service sectors)belong to the potential high water use efficiency of water industry,agriculture,wholesale and retail and catering industry belongs to high water consumption inefficient water industry,the use of Arc GIS for each level of the usage of water resources between different industries,is helpful for the improvement of the different economic sectors to take effective measures,in the development of industry economy at the same time,improve the degree of protection of water resources.