Analysis Of An Evolutionary Game Theory On Online Car-hailing Service Supervision Based On System Dynamics

With the Information and Communication Technology and Internet platform,the online car-hailing service has been developing as a new format from deep integration of the Internet and traditional transportation industry.It's also a successful attempt under the background of "Internet Plus".Although local governments have been implementing regulatory policies,the supervision on the online car-hailing which is a new thing is still immature and in its exploration stage.It's uncertain whether the new regulatory policies can adapt to the online car-hailing industry characteristics and supervise as effective as expectation.Under limited rational conditions,this thesis builds an evolutionary game model to analyze the strategy making and stability between the online car-hailing platforms and drivers.Meanwhile,it adds the government factor to construct a tripartite game model.Based on the analysis of this game model,a dynamic model is built with the system dynamics theory and simulate the online car-hailing supervision by Vensim PLE simulation tool.The results demonstrate that the stability status of the online car-hailing supervision is related to several key factors including the government's supervision costs,supervision strengths and loss of credibility,the online car-hailing platforms' supervision costs,benefits and penalties of absent supervision,the drivers' operation costs and penalties of violation operation and the social supervision strengths et al.Accordingly,this thesis proposes that to promote the supervision on the online car-hailing mainly through perfecting the laws and regulations,formulating reasonable policies and properly lowering the operating threshold,perfecting incentive mechanism,enhancing government-enterprise cooperation to promote information sharing and reduce supervision costs,strengthening government's supervision and advocating multilateral participation.This thesis consists of six chapters:the first chapter is the introduction,which introduces the research background and significance,the literature view,research methods and innovations.The second chapter is the theoretical basis focusing on the evolutionary game theory,system dynamics and government regulation theory,which provide the theoretical basis for the subsequent qualitative and quantitative analysis.Simultaneously,this chapter analyzes the evolutionary game theory's idea in solving the online car-hailing supervision problem and government regulations.The third chapter presents the development of the online car-hailing service and points out the existing problems.Based on that,the Two-party game model of car-hailing platforms and drivers is constructed to analyze the strategy of evolutionary stability and explore the evolution rules between the platforms and drivers.On the Two-party model basis,the fourth chapter builds a tripartite game model by adding the government as a main role to analyze the tripartite equilibrium and their evolution paths and laws.The fifth chapter utilizes the system dynamics theory and its modeling tool Vensim to construct the system flow diagram of the online car-hailing service supervision's tripartite evolutionary game model,which analyzes and simulates via changing pure strategy and exogenous variable.According to the simulation results,some specific and pertinent suggestions on online car-hailing supervision are proposed.The last chapter is the conclusion which mainly summarizes our research,identifies the research weakness and proposes the future research directions.