Carbon Dioxide Emission Of Coal-fired Power Industry Prediction Research Based On System Dynamics

Global warming,aggravated by the greenhouse effect due to the emission of carbon dioxide,has impacted greatly on the environment and become a serious threat to the survival and prosperity of humanity.Till now,carbon dioxide has taken a large proportion(around 55%)of all the greenhouse gases produced per year.In 2007,the amount of carbon dioxide produced in China topped the rest of the world.In 2011,the carbon dioxide emission from electrical and thermal production had reached over 3.58 billion tons,taking 49.3% of that of the whole nation.Among the carbon dioxide produced in thermal power generation,coal-firing has accounted for the proportion of 93.2% while the rest part is contributed by gas-firing and oil-firing.Thus,it's important to do research on and make forecast for carbon dioxide emission in coal-fired power generation.In this paper,an analysis on China's coal-fired power generation is made using a newly-established extended Kaya identical equation.Based on this,a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)decomposition Model is proposed and then applied to the analysis of factors for carbon dioxide emission in coal-fired power generation of China.Among all the analysed factors,energy consumption structure,economics of scale and population can positively contribute to the emission with a rate of 190.68%,8.26% and 0.83% for each one;on the contrast,power supply structure,coal consumption and energy intensity have negative effects on the emission,each accounting for 26.67%,9.44% and 63.66%.The rising of utilization and processing of thermal power technology have made energy intensity and coal consumption to become the main cause for the decline of carbon dioxide emission.According to this fact,a systematic-dynamic model with LMDI factor decomposition basis is presented to help forecasting the influence of different factors on carbon dioxide emission.Forecasts show that when there's a higher proportion of thermal power,the CCS technology is going to promote the emission's peaking while with a lower proportion CCS will make no influence.And if there's no remarkable decrease of coal consumption,CCS can better contribute to the emission reduction.In the end,different scenarios of the emission are suggested and analysed,then mathematically simulated through the systematic-dynamic model.Associating the simulation results with the reality of coal-fired power generation in China come the conclusion that it is necessary to optimize power supply structure,reduce coal-fired electricity ratio and coal consumption,improve energy utilization,develop new power generation technology and promote low-carbon research applications.