Study On Driving Factors And Reduction Strategies Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions For China's Power Industry

As an important basic industry supporting social and economic development,the excessive energy consumption and emissions brought by the power industry have become increasingly serious in recent years.Study from the perspective of influencing factors of greenhouse gas emission changes for the power industry has become a hot topic in the field of energy policy analysis.Especially in the context of the government accelerating the promotion of clean power production,optimizing the development paths of various fossil fuel generation technologies and clean generation technologies,and striving to improve the diversification level of power generation mix are the key factors to facilitate the development of the power industry and to achieve the emission reduction targets.This dissertation applies the index decomposition analysis method,production-theoretical decomposition analysis approach and panel data difference-indifference model to construct a comprehensive analysis framework for the influencing factors and explores the effects of different types of factors on the greenhouse gas emission changes of the national and regional power industries.It identifies the key driving factors for the emission growth and emission reductions,and accordingly proposes targeted emission reduction strategies for the power industry.In this context,this dissertation proves that optimizing the power generation mix is an important factor and key aspect to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for China's power industry.Therefore,by combining the fuel price risk and carbon emission cost risk for fossil fuel generation technologies,as well as the power grid absorption risk for non-fossil generation forms,this dissertation further makes a thorough study on the power generation mix by considering various technological development restrictions and the government's latest power generation policy targets.The results are help to plan the development of different power generation forms,and provide decision-making technical supports and strategy analysis tools for the formulation of targeted emission reduction measures for the power industry.The main conclusions are as follows:The economic development is the key factor to promote the emission growth of the national power industry;the population change also contributes to the emission growth;the power generation mix and energy intensity of thermal power are the most important factors that inhibit the emission growth of the national power industry;while the energy efficiency of thermal power,emission efficiency of thermal power,power intensity of GDP,energy mix of thermal power,power self-sufficiency ratio,power available-to-consumed ratio,energy saving technology of thermal power,emission reduction technology of thermal power,and implementation of carbon emission trading policies are of great significance to reduce the emissions of the national power industry;from the perspective of power generation mix,the fossil fuel generation technologies have no advantages in terms of cost and risk when considering the technological development restrictions;the various preferences for non-fossil generation technologies are influenced greatly by the goals of pursuing cost or risk minimization and different policy targets;positive effects exist for implementing a non-fossil generation goal or a policy target package from the perspective of optimizing the power generation mix.