Research On Thermal Power Enterprise Profit Forecasts Based On System Dynamics

Thermal power enterprises are main forces of the national economy. In recentyears, with the deepening reform of electric power enterprise and the rapiddevelopment of market economy, many enterprises are facing more and moreproblems in the development process, and some of them even entrapping into adifficult dilemma in business. Under the complicated and changeable environment,for the development of enterprises and decision-making， profit forecasts can providethe basis so as to reduce the management risk, and make the enterprise impregnable inthe market competition, thus it is of very vital significance. But the prediction ofcorporate profits in our country adopted by the traditional methods cannot solvenonlinear, dynamic and time-lag problems, requiring highly and depending stronglyof the data processing. And system dynamics methods can make up the defects ofthese methods to some extent, avoiding the forecast inaccuracy caused by theseproblems, therefore, using the method of system dynamics for the power companyprofit forecast study is very necessary.This paper outlines the various traditional profit forecast methods and theirshortcomings, system dynamics theory are introduced in detail at the same time;Secondly, according to the characteristics of thermal power enterprise, leading thetheory and method of system dynamics into the thermal power enterprise’s profitforecast, focuses on the prediction model of thermal power enterprises profit based onsystem dynamics based on profit; Finally, taking S company as an example, accordingto the actual situation of enterprises to the model transformation and combination,construction of a complete practical profit forecast system so as to realize thesimulation study, and comparing the results with the conventional method for a simplecomparison prediction, further explained the accuracy of system dynamics method isreasonable, and put forward reasonable proposals for the development of enterprises.