Simulation Of Tourism Carbon Emissions Based On System Dynamics In Hunan Province

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,the scale of tourism has grown steadily,and the output value has increased exponentially.As a major province of tourism resources and tourism consumption,Hunan Province also experiences difficulties in tourism development,high carbon consumption,over-exploitation of tourism destinations,loose tourism management,and sharp decline in tourism resources.While promoting tourism vitality,Hunan's global tourism planning also makes specific requirements for green tourism,eco-tourism and low-carbon tourism.The tourism system dynamics model based on carbon emissions is the basis and foundation for the sustainable development of tourism,and is also of great significance for the development of low carbon tourism.Based on the research on the direct carbon emission of tourism in Hunan Province,based on the theory of sustainable development,low-carbon economy and eco-tourism,the input-output method is used to calculate the carbon emission characteristics of tourism in Hunan Province.The paper innovatively constructs the dynamic model of tourism carbon emission system in Hunan Province and simulates it,combines the growth simulation of carbon emissions under different scenarios,and designs the optimal growth path,thus providing a certain low-carbon development for tourism in Hunan Province.The research results show that:(1)In 2008-2014,the direct carbon emission of tourism in Hunan Province increased rapidly,from 2,952,500 tons to 7,813,400 tons.Tourism transportation,post and telecommunications departments have a relatively high growth rate,tourism catering departments account for a relatively large proportion,and carbon intensity and per capita carbon emissions show a volatility of decline;(2)The system simulation results show the carbon emission characteristics of tourism in Hunan Province from 2008 to 2025.The total carbon emissions increased from 2,952,500 tons to 1,79,900 tons.The tourism industry's wholesale and retail,accommodation and food carbon emissions growth rate is low,the overall carbon emissions of the tourism industry has not changed much,the tourism transportation postal carbon emissions are the fastest growing sector,the total number of tourists is growing rapidly,per capita carbon emissions are falling at a constant rate;(3)According to the possibledevelopment direction of tourism in Hunan Province,different situational plans are set and the carbon emission characteristics in each situation are simulated.Technological innovation scenarios and environmental improvement scenarios can effectively reduce the total amount of carbon emissions.The tourism cycle situation can also reduce a certain amount of carbon emissions,and the simulation of the total number of tourists is closer to the reality.The optimal growth path of tourism carbon emissions in Hunan Province is excellent,which is a powerful reference for tourism to reduce carbon.