Study On The Resource And Environment Carrying Capacity Of Urban Agglomeration In The Fujian River Deltas Based On The System Dynamics Model

With the continuous advancement of urbanization,urban agglomeration has become a concentrated and intensified area between resource environment and population economic development."A Number of Opinions on the Establishment of a Long-term Mechanism for Monitoring and Early Warning of the resources and environment carrying capacity" was promulgated in 2017.The cities actively carry out the calculation and evaluation of the resources and environment carrying capacity,and provide support and theoretical basis for the realization of spatial equilibrium of social,economic and resource environment in the region.Based on this background,urban agglomeration in the Fujian River Deltas was taken as the research object.Based on system dynamics method,constructed urban agglomeration in the Fujian river deltas resource and environmental carrying capacity of system dynamics model,under the guidance of system theory point of view,the resources and environment carrying capacity of Xiamen,Zhangzhou and Quanzhou are analyzed respectively.At the same time,urban agglomeration in the Fujianriver deltas resource and environmental carrying capacity change trend was simulated,to explore the influence of the integrated development on the carrying capacity of resources and environment.Based on the above goal,first of all,research progress,theory,method,research content of resources and environment carrying capacity were summarized,to grasp the method of system dynamics modeling,and provide theoretical and methodological basis for building models.According to the statistics of 2005～2016,the present situation of population,economy,resources and environment of Xiamen,Zhangzhou and Quanzhou were analyzed.With the support of theory and historical data,Vensim PLE software was used to build resource and environmental carrying capacity of system dynamics model,including population and economic subsystem,resources subsystem,environment subsystem.By using data from 2005 to 2016 to debug and test,the model is able to simulate the development trend of resource and environment carrying capacity of three cities and urban agglomerations through validity inspection,historic inspection and sensitivity analysis.Combining with the characteristics of urban agglomeration in the Fujian River Deltas and selected 16 parameters,according to Millennium Ecosystem Assessment set four scenarios,Xiamen,Zhangzhou and Quanzhou and the future urban agglomeration development trend of resource and environmental carrying capacity were simulated.By analyzing the results of scenarios simulation,the Global Orchestration scenario is in line with the target values required in the 13th five-year plan,Technology Gardenscenario is an ideal model for city development.By analyzing the resources and environment carrying capacity of Xiamen,Zhangzhou and Quanzhou city,it is found that the capacity of Xiamen resources is small,and the environmental carrying capacity increases the pressure,and the water environment is the most important.Compared with other two cities,Zhangzhou’s resource carrying capacity and environmental carrying capacity is the best,and the economic development potential is great.Quanzhou resources and environmental carrying capacity are medium level among three.cities,and the water environment bearing capacity is short.By simulating the trend of urban agglomeration in the Fujian River Deltas in the future development scenario,the author found out that the GDP of urban agglomeration is higher than the sum of three cities,resource usage and emissions below the sum of the three cities,the city urban agglomeration can promote economic development,resource conservation and environmental carrying capacity of ascension.According to the results of urban agglomeration in the Fujian River Deltas resource and environmental bearing capacity analysis,four suggestions for integrating and promoting resource environmental carring capacity were purposed.(1)Solve the different population problems of these three city,and optimize the industrial structure in urban agglomeration.(2)Integrate regional resources in urban agglomeration and optimize resource allocation.(3)Actively carry out regional environmental dialogue and cooperation to improve environmental carrying capacity.(4)Establish an early warning mechanism of resources and environment and regulate the resource environment.(5)Continue to promote the integration of urban agglomerations.