Research On Emergency Decision Making Of Communication Guarantee For Unconventional Emergencies

As China is a country with a wide stretch of land,high frequency of emergency events and more serious losses often occurs after each event.Emergency management has become the focus on today's society because unconventional emergencies have characteristics of severe damage and high uncertainty.As an important part of emergency management,emergency decision making is directly related to the success of the whole emergency rescue work.The core of emergency decision making is formulating scheme.It is likely to lead to greater disaster and more irreparable damage once emergency decision making is wrong.As an important foundation for the national economy industries,emergency communication is directly related to the smooth communication when the accident occurs,affecting the timely delivery of important information and the favoring progress of the emergency communication guarantee.Therefore,it is very important for the emergency decision making of communication guarantee.In the case of unconventional emergencies,how to make a scientific and reasonable emergency decision making of communication guarantee,in order to response rapidly and effectively,minimize the loss caused by unconventional emergencies? This paper puts forward a new method of quantitative research on emergency decision making.Firstly,through the characteristics of unconventional emergency and communications guarantee,the domestic and foreign research on emergency decision making of communication guarantee,index system of emergency decision making of communication guarantee in unconventional emergency with 11 condition indexes and 7 decision indexes is constructed.Use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate its scientificalness.Secondly,use the dominance rough set approach to build up decision table,preprocess data,reduct attributes in order to calculate the core attributes and its weights of the condition attributes.Then,use the nearest neighbor method combine with weights of core attributes to calculate the similarity of current and historical emergency by setting the threshold function.Finally,add time and cost of emergency into sequence.Use grey relational analysis to determine the reference sequence with the time and cost of emergency and the lowest similarity between current and historical emergencies.The rest are comparative sequence.Through processing dimensionless,calculating the gray coefficient and combining with index weights by entropy weight method and nonlinear programming model,calculate grey correlation degree and rank.Then choose the decision making of historical emergencies with the smallest grey correlation degree to be the auxiliary reference,thus providing support for decision makers to make emergency decisions scientifically and rationally.