Research On Coal Mine Emergency Response Decision-making Under Uncertain Environment

In order to reduce losses and negative social impact caused by coal mine accidents,respond to accidents effectively and improve emergency response capacity,the framework of coal mine emergency response decision-making is constructed,which is on the basis of analyzing coal mine accident characteristics and its development and evolution mechanism.The integrated use of fuzzy mathematics,gray theory,multiple attribute group decision-making and behavioral decision theory,coal mine emergency decision-making and information processing mode is given based on the characteristics of the process of its emergency response and information form,which are studied from the perspective of system analysis.The main research results are as follows:(1)The decision-making framework of coal mine emergency response is constructed.Using emergency management theory and factor analysis method,the theories related to coal mine accident,emergency management process and overseas emergency management system are studied.Combined with the reality of coal mine emergency management in China,the development and evolution mechanism of coal mine accident is summarized,and the research framework of emergency response decision-making is constructed.(2)In view of the fact that the coal mine emergency decision-making is based on the selection of emergency plan in China,method of selecting coal mine emergency plans based on grey relational degree is put forward,which is based on the incomplete index system and decision-making information after coal mine accident.Because of the complexity of the decision-making environment and the uncertaint information,feature values of current accident and emergency plans are all mixed form.Grey correlation coefficient is used to measure the degree of correlation between current accident and emergency plans.Then,by extracting the emergency plan with the largest comprehensive grey correlation degree as the decision-making reference for the next stage,the selection of emergency plans is realized.(3)Considering the uncertainty and fuzziness of decision-mking information,the inconsistency of decision experts’ opinions and their psychological behavior characteristics of bounded rationality,the method of selecting coal mine emergency response alternatives based on prospect theory is prosposed.Firstly,based on the actual demand of coal mine emergency decision-making,the evaluation index system of coal mine emergency response alternative is constructed.And hesitant triangular fuzzy elements are used to represent group decision-making information,which can effectively represent the case that decision makers disagree in multiple attribute decision-maker.The comparison and ranking of hesitant triangular fuzzy elements are realized by using fuzzy structured element method.Then,an optimiaztion model based on the distance deviation of attribute values is construted,and two objective weights of attributes are obtained through solving the model,which are completely and partially known.Furthermore,based on the main idea of prospect theory,the income matrix an loss matrix are constructed respectively.Finally,the method of TOPSIS is used to aggregate group decision information,and the selection and ranking of emergency response alternatives are also realized.(4)Aiming at the development trend of coal mine accident and implementation effect of emergency response alternative,the decision-making method which considers regret aversion and utility risk entropy is presented.Firstly,the regret theory is introduced to calculate the comprehensive perceived utility of decision makers.Then,the interval number is used to represent the uncertain preference of decision-making expert group.And aiming at the case that the weights of decision-making groups are inconsistent,the clustering algorithm is designed to calculate the weights of decision makers.Furthermore,the risk is measured from the uncertainty of scenario results and the comprehensive perceived utility of decision makers.Finally,the dynamic adjustment process of coal mine emergency response alternatives is constructed,and the corresponding decision-making method is given.