Method On Risk Decision Of Emergency Response Considering Decision Maker’s Behavior

In recent years, various emergencies around the world occur frequently, and they caused a huge threat to social stability and people’s lives and property. In this context, timely and effective emergency response will be useful to reduce the losses caused by unexpected events. Therefore, when the incidents just occur or some of the signs emerge, how to choose the best solution from many emergency plans in order to minimize the losses caused by unexpected events is a meaningful and important research topic.In this paper, we studied emergency decision theory, method and application. Two main questions were analyzed in detail:Firstly, how to estimate the scene probability through emergency information on the likely scenarios and knowledge from specialists? When the unexpected event occurs, estimate the probability according to background characteristics of the event, expert knowledge and experience of similar events in the history of the emergency situation that may arise to. Secondly, how to choose the best alternative considering the costs and consequence of the alternatives. In emergency decision-making process, decision makers are often not fully rational. In this paper, decision makers are considered as risk-avoid if there are some high damage results in the consequences. So, we proposed to introduce the research results of behavior decision to emergency decision-making process.(1) Proposed a kind of risk decision problems of unexpected events emergency decision. Many emergency response issues have the characteristics of a risk decision. In this paper, we studied a class of risk decision-making problem of emergency response with high-hazard results.(2) Proposed a scenario probability based on the fault tree analysis method. First, determine the top event, the middle of events and basic events based on expert knowledge and historical experience of similar events, and draw fault trees; and then, determine the probability of basic events under the different emergency response plans through expert knowledge; Finally, calculate the probability of top event and intermediate events and basic events though the logical relationship between the basic events, intermediate events and basic events.(3) Emergency program selection model was constructed based on Prospect Theory. First, the calculation of unexpected events combined value of the different scenarios, namely, quantitative description of different scenarios for the casualties and property losses comprehensive psychological perception of decision makers; Then, calculate the incident the weight of different scenarios, ie different scenarios for the quantitative description degree of decision-makers the importance of emerging mental perception; On this basis, according to comprehensive value scenarios, scenario and contingency plans weight the cost of inputs, calculate the future value of a comprehensive emergency plan, and prospects based on the value of comprehensive contingency plans to determine the size of the sort.(4) Show the behavior of policy makers to consider emergency response decision making process in the application of the emergency of infectious diseases. In this paper, a university in northern China A H1N1cases emergent decision-making process for the potential application of the emergency context. Demonstrate that the proposed emergency decision-making model is reasonable; the results prove the validity of the model.