Based On Petri Net The Early Warning Research On Passenger Car Manufacturing Enterprise Supply Risk

With the popularity of the national manufacturing industry and the rapid development of network information technology,competition among enterprises has gradually become the competition between supply chain.Supply chain management has been as a kind of means between enterprises to enhance competitive power and obtain competitive advantage.supply chain risk management is an important link in supply chain management.As China's economic pillar industry,passenger car manufacturing industry,its supply chain risk management also has an important role in the manufacturing enterprise supply chain management.Therefore,using the risk management thought,analying risk problem and determining early risk warning result,taking effective preventive measures,solving the potential risk of supply chain,these processes have realistic and far-reaching significance in improving automobile manufacturing enterprises supply stability,promoting the scientific management of the supply chain,coordinating supply chain enterprises cooperation and sustaining development.Because of the complexity and dynamic characteristic which is different from other manufacturing enterprises supply chain Once the supply chain encounters external environmental changes or other factors,there are a lot of problems appeared in the supply chain that can cause inefficient supply chain efficiencies and unpredictable economic losses.Therefore,the use of passenger car manufacturing enterprise of supply chain risk early warning research to ensure operate high-efficitely and stablly and promote efficiency and efficiency of the passenger car manufacturing enterprises have important practical significance.In this paper,the research object is the supply chain of passenger car manufacturing enterprises.Based on analying the current situation and existing problemof assenger car manufacturing enterprise supply chain and its risk early warning probloms,this paper aim to the passenger car manufacturing enterprise supply chain process,choose Petri Net to supply chain process modeling technologyand developt the research on passenger car manufacturing enterprise supply chain risk early warning.Specifically,this paper mainly include four aspects of research:First,research on passenger car manufacturing enterprise supply chain based on Petri net process framework mode.Based on the detailed analysis of passenger car manufacturing enterprise supply chain structure and the characteristics of passenger car manufacturing enterprise supply chain structure,this paper determine the flow chart of the supply chain,choose Petri net application model and build passenger car manufacturing enterprise supply chain based on Petri net model.Second,this paper research risk early warning indicators which refers to status indicators and performance index about petri net moldle,using the principles of the homogeneous between Petri net and markov state,identifing model's status indicators and performance index,clearing choice model state index as the cause of the risk early warning indicators and feasibility,analyzing its performance indicators as a mechanism of risk prevention.Third,the study of BP neural network of supply chain risk early warning model,according to the principle and steps of BP neural network model,this part select the appropriate model parameters and the training function to build the risk early warning model based on BP neural network,combining with the index data training model,useing determine the generalization ability of the model to test model and establishing effective risk early warning model.Forth,this part research specific passenger car manufacturing enterprise supply chain risk problem.Based on the analysis of the current situation of enterprise supply chain and process structure,this part selects the enterprise state index of the relevant data,analyzs enterprise supply chain risk early warning using risk early warning model,shows forecasting results based on the risk early warning model,presents the risk state of the supply chain and take countermeasures to prevent the risk using performance data to reason the enterprise supply chain risk.