Research On Supply Chain Risk Warning Of Automotive Manufacturing Enterprises

Since2005, China has adopted a series of measures to reduce import duties, the cancellation of quota on import cars, car to the countryside subsidies, make the car sales growth..The current development of the automotive industry has been a car supply chain network from the traditional components independent entirely by the manufacturer,vehicle assembly, To complete a series of parts purchasing, manufacturing, sales and distribution activities, automobile supply chain network. Automobile manufacturing enterprises and other enterprises, technology, the technology is complex, high technology content, to partnership, supply chain is a complex supply chain system, the existence of potential automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain risk. And automobile manufacturing industry or a supporting the main industry of economy in our country, so to our country, every automobile manufacturing industry to make the necessary risk early warning management is very practical significance, because it helps the smooth development of the economy in our country.Under the premise of the analysis of domestic and foreign automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain risk status and according to the automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain theory and the source of automobile manufacturing enterprise, identifies the main risk in automobile manufacturing enterprise and analyzes the components of risk, made it clear to consider the automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain risk from external macro environment, partnerships and cooperate ability. Using the combination of qualitative and quantitative method, initially designing the risk early-warning index system automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain which consists of20indicators. Then, This system use a technique called adopt the method of factor analysis method to the analysis of the initial indicators one by one, finally keep four primary risk early warning indicators and13secondary early warning indicators, and bring them to form a new early warning index system., applying BP neural network to build a automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain risk early-warning model and using the model to forecast the automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain risk that the automobile manufacturing enterprise faced. Automobile manufacturing enterprise with the measurements of alert degree of the risk of supply chain integration of table, it can derive the warning results and work out the corresponding early-warning response plans.On the actual condition of automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain risk early warning and in-depth research done after careful investigation, can prove the above described automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain risk early warning model of automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain risk early warning index system is very effective and special utility., so that to provide a reference for automobile manufacturing enterprises to prevent and control the risk.