Spatial And Temporal Variation Of Grain Production And Its Influencing Factors At The County Level In China

The issue of grain production and distribution is an important factor related to national economic development and social stability.Based on the data of grain production and social and economic indicators in China from 2000 to 2014,this paper analyzed the characteristics of grain output in the whole country and different regions in recent 15 years.On this basis,with the spatial autocorrelation analysis and geographical detector,this paper explores the spatial pattern of the grain production in China,its spatial differentiation and its mechanism.The results show that:(1)In the past 15 years,the national grain production has been on the rise.In 2004 and 2013,the grain output" ten-year increase" has been observed.The average annual growth rate of grain production is 2.43%,and the grain yield has significant terrain differentiation.Three agricultural areas out of nine with the higher proportion of grain output are Huang Huaihai agricultural area,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River agricultural area,and the northeast agricultural area.(2)The number of counties with high yields of grain in China has significantly increased,and the grain production center has gradually shifted northward.The distribution pattern of grain production still conforms to the distribution characteristics of Hu Huanyong Line,but tends to shift to the northwest.The states of grain production and production in the country show spatial agglomeration,which has been continuously strengthened.The high-high agglomeration areas gradually shift to the northeast agricultural area,and the low-low agglomeration areas gradually shifted to the east and south coasts.The regional division of grain production in China is more significant.(3)The main factors influencing the spatial distribution of grain production across the country changed from the added value of population and first industry in 2000 to the total area of cultivated land and agricultural machinery in 2014.The mechanisms of different factors on the spatial distribution of grain yield turn out to be different.