Study On Spatial Pattern Change Of Grain Production In Jiangsu Province

Regional grain supply-demand balance is an important premise for national food security. Unstinted grain supply is a key strategic material of constructing harmonious society. Whether the grain supply is balance in time and space or not is an important factor affecting the grain safety. Making a further discussion on change low of spatial pattern of grain production is significant to make grain production, trade and circulation policy, and optimize the layout of grain processing industry. Taking Jiangsu a typical developed provinces located in east-coast of China as an example, based on regional difference analysis method, GIS, centrographic statistic, spatial attocorrelation statistic and panel data model, this paper have made a further discussion on variation characteristics, influence factors, driving mechanism. Further more, based on a scientific review of this spatial pattern change, preliminary optimizing strategies have been put forward. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Grain problem has its unique connotations. Grain supply and consumption interweave with ecologic environment, economic development, and politics. The spatial pattern of grain production is an important influence factor on grain yield fluctuation, grain allocation and transportation, also supply security. These are key theoretical basis of our discussion on regional grain security.(2) The overall characteristics of the spatial pattern change of grain production in Jiangsu Province are: spatial pattern of grain production in Jiangsu Province has change a lot since 1995;the mean center of grain production has transferred to north, and the spatial change of grain production is inconsistent with population gathering and economic activities; grain production in south Jiangsu became atrophic and this region comes to be low-low aggregation area, however, the grain production in north of Yangtze river area has been greatly improved, especially the north Jiangsu, which becomes the most important grain production area.(3) The direct influence factor of spatial pattern change of grain production in Jiangsu is the unbalanced spatial change of grain planting area. Urbanization and industrialization are significance indirect driving factors; moreover, the adjustment policy of agricultural structure and the supporting policy of grain production have obvious guiding function to the spatial pattern change. The driving mechanism is urbanization and industrialization on the one hand have caused massive cultivated land occupied for non-agricultural use, and on the other hand have influenced the farmers' agricultural and grain production enthusiasms, together with the policy guidance, finally caused the agricultural land use change. The integrated driving force of social economy growth, based upon the comparatively advantage of land and labor force, has been playing a more and more significant influence on spatial pattern of grain production.(4) The spatial pattern change of grain production in Jiangsu Province is the rational decision-making results of farmers, it is reasonable to a certain extent, however has brought up adverse affect to the stability of grain production, the supply-demand balance of grain production and environmental health in south Jiangsu. To ensure the grain security in Jiangsu Province, the south region of Jiangsu should center around rice production and stand on the production-consumption balance of ration, stabilize and improve the ability of grain production, consolidate and expand the regional cooperation between production and sale, widely develop provincial grain trade, perfect the grain reserves system, set up and perfect food security warning and emergency system. For the region of north Yangtze River, as main grain production area, they should stabilize and improve the ability of grain production, greatly develop the grain industrialization, improve the ability and efficiency of grain storage and transportation.(5) It is a scientific reproach to the exploration of spatial pattern change of grain production, based on the analysis of variation characteristics, influencing factors, driving mechanism, scientific review and optimizing strategy. The combining of GIS, spatial mean center statistics and spatial autocorrelation statistics, has provided us with visualized spatial information of spatial pattern change of grain production. Panel data model is a roper method for investigating the influencing factor and driving mechanism of spatial pattern change of grain production.