Study On Spatial-temporal Pattern Change Of Grain Production And Its Influencing Factors Under The Background Of Urbanization In China

Grain production has regional and temporal nature,with the process of urbanization,the regional changes of main grain producing areas,main sales areas and provinces and cities in China are obvious.With the acceleration of urbanization process,the agricultural land and the loss of rural labor force,the adjustment of agricultural structure,the upgrading of agricultural mechanization have had a certain influence on the regional pattern of grain production.Based on 1997 to 2016 provincial panel data of 31 administrative regions in China,this article analyze the change of grain production in China from grain yield dimension,using the global Moran's I index to test the spatial correlation of grain yield in China's provinces and regions.using space barycenter model to analyze the track change of grain production in China.Further,we using the space Dobbin model(SDM)to analyze the factors affecting the change of grain production pattern in various provinces of China.The study found that: In the past 20 years,China's total grain output has fluctuated slightly,but the general trend is increasing;the focus of grain production in China has gradually moved northward,but the degree of movement is small,mainly in Henan province.and there is a clear positive spatial autocorrelation between the grain output of various provinces and regions,and there are certain differences in grain production between provinces.The effective irrigation area,the fertilizer application,the mechanical power and the proportion of grain sowing to crop planting and the per capita cultivated land area have a significant positive impact on the growth of grain production in China,and the spatial spillover effect of effective irrigation area and per capita cultivated land area is significant.Urbanization factors have different effects on grain production in the three major regions of East and West in China,which have significant positive impact on the eastern region,and have a non significant positive impact on the western region and middle region.The comprehensive effect of these factors has made the pattern of grain yield change in recent 20 years.Based on the conclusion,it is suggested to improve the basic facilities construction,protect the quantity and quality of the cultivated land,strengthen the level of agricultural science and technology progress,strengthen the coordination of grain supply and demand among the provinces,and take a new path to Urbanization.