Research On Risk Management Of Construction Engineering Projects Based On System Dynamics

There are various risks in the construction process of construction projects,the risks may come from different aspects,such as bad weather,policy changes,accidents,which lead to delays in project duration and increase in project capacity.Managers take measures to alleviate project pressure but can cause cost increase or quality drop again.Therefore,for the managers of construction projects,risk management of the project is an important part of project management.The existing research results of construction project risk management have contributed a lot to the analysis and control of the risks of construction projects,but there are still some problems.In this study,the system dynamics method is applied to the risk management of construction projects,and the project risk system model is constructed.The optimal strategy of risk control is considered from the overall and systematic point of view.This study takes the general construction project as the research object,according to the steps of risk management:risk identification,risk assessment,risk response and monitoring,the process of the entire construction project is abstracted..First of all,through a large number of literature overview research of the construction project risk management and system dynamics research,define the relevant concepts,expound the relevant theory.Secondly,risk identification.Based on literature research and through expert interview method,the risk factors of construction projects are tentatively identified,and classified as target dimension risks and factor dimension risks related to the construction project,target dimension risks include quality risk,time risk and cost risk factors,factor dimension risks include environmental risk,financial risk,risk of design change etc.,then through the method of system dynamics to further identify target dimension risks and build the system dynamics model of risk.Thirdly,risk assessment.Based on the model through the test,simulate the data of a Kunshan D block project,according to the simulation results,evaluate the influence degree of factor dimension risks on the project goals under different situations.Finally,risk response and monitoring.Based on the application of system dynamics method in construction projects,some suggestions for risk response and control are put forward.Conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)construction project risk identification in the construction process can be summarized as the target dimension risk and factor dimension risk,the risks are not independent of each other,but influence each other and act on each other.(2)factor dimension risks includes:managers' quality,personnel risk,environmental risk,organization risk,design change risk,capital risk and contract risk,respectively.(3)through the analysis of simulation results,the risk response strategy is proposed based on system dynamics.