Research On Risk Management Of Prefabricated Housing Project Based On System Dynamics

The expansion of the city scale has driven the development of my country’s construction industry,and the traditional construction mode is contrary to the current concept of sustainable development.Since the 13 th Five-Year Plan,the State Council has vigorously advocated the development of prefabricated buildings,and formulated a series of development goals and incentive policies to promote the industrial upgrading of my country’s construction industry.The residential market occupies half of the construction market.The development of prefabricated houses is an indispensable part of promoting the industrial upgrading of my country’s construction industry.Real estate developers should actively integrate into the wave of prefabricated housing development.However,because the development of prefabricated housing is still in its infancy,there are still certain defects in related industry standards and normative policies.Developers have certain risks in the development of prefabricated housing projects,which is not conducive to the implementation of the development strategy of prefabricated buildings.Therefore,this paper conducts research on risk management of prefabricated residential projects from the perspective of developers,so as to reduce the risk impact in the development of prefabricated residential projects.This article takes the development status of prefabricated houses as the background,clarifies the purpose and significance of the research.Through the analysis of domestic and foreign research documents,it sorts out the research content and methods of prefabricated residential project risk management;then the theories related to prefabricated building,risk management and system dynamics are summarized.On the basis of literature analysis,visits and investigations,and project practice,the main risk factors of prefabricated residential projects are screened out,and the impact of risk factors in corporate management,engineering construction,policy,market,and economy on the risk level of prefabricated residential projects is analyzed.,And analyze the main risk action paths based on the system dynamics theory;use Vensim software to establish a risk evaluation model for prefabricated housing projects based on the determined risk action relationships,and determine the boundary point risk factors and related risks through questionnaire surveys Index evaluation,through the risk evaluation model to simulate and analyze the risk level of the Y prefabricated residential project,and compare it with the actual situation in the project implementation process to determine the progress,quality,and cost risk increase in the prefabricated residential project implementation process The research results show that the progress and quality risks of prefabricated housing projects are far greater than the cost risks.The shortage of prefabricated professional construction personnel,the quality of connection points,and the insufficient level of on-site management are the main factors affecting the risk level of prefabricated housing projects.According to the analysis results obtained,suggestions are made for the risk management of the prefabricated residential project,hoping to reduce the risk loss of the developer in the prefabricated residential project.This paper systematically analyzes the risk factors of prefabricated residential projects and the relationship between the risk factors,simulates and predicts the trend of the risk level,provides a reference for the risk management of developers,and enriches the research data of prefabricated residential risk management.,To further promote the healthy development of prefabricated houses in our country.