An Empirical Study On Domestic Flight Delays

With the rapid rise of the civil aviation industry,the problem of flight delay becomes a common topic in people's words.At the same time,the economy develops rapidly since enters into the new century.The aerospace industry of some core cities(such as Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and other places)is in the rapid development,promoting the rapid rise of the aviation industry in other places.Under the promotion of airport construction and regional economy,C hinese aviation industry enters into a period of rapid development.Accordingly,the development of the aviation industry greatly accelerates the regional communication and economic cooperation.However,there are some problems which restrict the development of airports and airlines such as the flight delay.Firstly,this paper analyzes the causes of flight delays.Relevant departments find that the main causes of flight delays include: weather reasons,air traffic reasons for airport security reasons,the passenger's own reasons,airlines and so on.Among them,the weather becomes the main reason for restricting the flight off on time in addition to air traffic control factors.The data of Chinese real-time flight delays published on the website of The United States Aviation Data can be regarded as the standard time series data.But unlike ordinary time series data,seasonal fluctuation obviously exists in its value changes.The seasonal factor becomes the key point which can not be ignored in the weather reason which affects the flight delay.Secondly,through the analysis of various factors,it can be found that the average time of flight delays is an important indicator to measure the normal flight conditions.By using time series analysis and empirical analysis,the author mines the data deeply.The certainty-factor-decomposition method of time series model and SARIMA(seasonal time series)analysis are two main kinds of methods which are used by the author.With the help of the analytical packages(decompose and tseries)and prediction package(forecast)in R software for time series analysis,the author processes the data,fits the model and finally chooses the right model for domestic airline flight delays which is served for forecast.It provides effective decision-makings to decision-makers in airline transport business.Finally,this paper gives a reasonable explanation of the model and predicted results.It puts forward constructive suggestions to the relevant departments.There are few articles on the establishment of the seasonal time series model and the short term prediction by using the monthly data of C hinese flight delays.In this paper,a preliminary study is conducted on the domestic airline flight delays.The delay characterization method has a positive effect on the prediction of delays.The practical significance is verified by some examples of domestic airports.