Foreign Final Demands' Induced Effects On China's Carbon Emissions And SDA Decomposition

With the introduction of the IPCC fifth Assessment Report, and the bottom-up "Spectral type" reduction commitments made by the Paris climate conference in 2015, countries found a feasible path to reduce the dispute, but still can not completely resolve the controversy. At the same time, intermediate goods trade that are in the form of production fragmentation made the connection between production and consumption became more complex, and also brought the problem of carbon emission accounting.Therefore, under the unified framework of an open economy, to explore the complex relationship between the production (supply) and consumption (demand) due to the characteristics of the intermediate goods trade, and further clarify the embodied carbon emission and emission responsibility has important practical significance and theoretical value.Under the background of global production network, this paper comprehensively considers the trade channel of the intermediate products, uses the GIRIO model to analyze the impact of complex international trade relations between countries on China's carbon emissions, and also investigates the induced amounts and induction coefficient of foreign final demand to China's carbon emissions from 1996 to 2009 through direct and indirect pathway. And also decomposes the whole induced amounts into five effects at country level and different time interval by Structure Decomposition Analysis (SDA) between production side and demand side. The results show that indirect induced effects on China's carbon emissions by foreign countries' final demand sourcing from non-China are larger and larger. And the induced effects of Europe, the United States and East Asian countries'final demand have different characteristics. During the study period, the economic technology effect and the foreign final demand structure effect, which respectively reflecting the carbon emissions embodied in intermediate goods trade of production link and consumption link, are driving forces to the rise of China's carbon emissions induced by foreign demand. The economic technology effect which made the largest contribution reflect the demand preference to carbon containing intermediate goods produced by China in each country's production have risen. As the second major contributor, the foreign final demand structure effect respect the intermediate goods trade (indirectly induced) to strengthen the total induced amounts of China's carbon emissions, illustrating that demand reduction was still the main method of reducing carbon emissions in the coupling of demand and production. Carbon emissions induced by the foreign countries'final consumption is an important factor to promote the rise of total carbon emissions in China, accounting for more than 30% in recent years;The indirect induced amounts of foreign final demand to China's carbon emissions are equal to the direct amounts, and the growth rate is also faster than the growth rate of direct induced amounts; The foreign final demand coefficient effect mostly are negative, indicates that countries are adjusting the demand structure, and reducing the use of carbon intensive goods, which reflect that countries has made some efforts to adjust the structure in the demand side. China's carbon emission coefficient effect is negative in each period, which is the main factor of carbon emission reduction in China, reflecting that China's efforts in the production side, and showing that China is implementing reduction plan positively. At the country level, Europe and the United States made biggest contributions; In view of different stages, effects are fluctuated significantly after joining the WTO.Finally, the paper proposes appropriate policy recommendations according to the conclusion from the empirical analysis. For example, actively promote the establishment of accounting standards that production and consumption shared the emission reduction responsibility, building a fair and sustainable international climate system; Implement "intensity reduction", increase emission reduction efforts; Gradually optimize the energy structure, and improve the efficiency of energy use; Optimize and adjust the export structure, and change the mode of trade growth, etc.