The Method For Multi-attributes Emergency Decision Making By Considering The Dependent Information Sources

In recent years,the emergencies are frequent and the sphere of influence and complexity are significantly increased,which causes enormous losses in the aspects of manpower,material resources and financial resources to society at the international level,which highlight the urgent need for emergency management in contemporary society,and become one of the research hotspots.Effective emergency decision-making for scenarios and seedtime of emergencies is the heart of emergency management,in view of the complexity and urgency of emergencies,emergency decision-making is an uncertain multi-attributes decision-making process in a short time that takes advantage of a large amount of incomplete information and knowledge,multi-sectoral collaboration and multi-angles evaluation.How to consolidate the uncertain knowledge and information given by multiple sources in a limited time and make effective emergency decision is the key issue to deal with emergencies.The application of evidence theory in the field of multi-attributes contingency decision-making can solve the problem of uncertain or missing information,but the theory of evidence is usually carried out under the assumption that the information sources are independent,which is not confirmed in the actual emergency decision-making,so it is necessary to solve the problem of independent information source in emergency decision-making.Aiming at the existing research,this paper analyzed the assumption that the information source is independent when using the evidence theory to deal with the problem of emergency multi-attributes decision-making.Combined with the characteristics of multi-attributes emergency decision-making,and propose a multi-attributes contingency decision-making method which considers information source dependent.The main research contents include the following aspects.First,use the analytic hierarchy process to obtain the emergency decision attribute weight to determine the importance of each attribute in the emergency decision goals.On the basis of this,the representation of multi-attributes contingency decision-making problem based on evidence theory is constructed,including the construction of coke element and its basic probability distribution,and the evidence information given by the information source with different reliability is discounted according to the reliability.Second,put out the computational method of the dependent degree between information sources,give the initial fuzzy evaluation information of the emergency alternatives accordingto the information sources under different attributes,cluster the contingency options according to the evaluation information,analyze the relationship between the clusters given by the individual attributes,and get the degree of correlation between the clusters to further obtain the correlation between the various information sources.Third,based on the relevant degree of the information source,a hybrid synthesis rule considering the correlation is proposed to fuse the evidence information,and an emergency alternatives selection method based on the pingistic probability is given.Through case verification and comparative analysis,it shows the scientificalness of the method proposed in this paper.The method proposed in this paper has important research significance for the using of evidence theory to deal with multi-attributes emergency decision-making problem.Firstly,the use of evidence theory can be a very good expression of uncertainty information to solve the problem of incomplete information of emergency decision-making in emergencies.Next,the computational method of the relevant degree between information sources is based on the characteristics of emergency decision-making and consistent with the essence of information sources.Furthermore,by using of hybrid combining rules considering the information source partially dependent to the information fusion evidence avoiding the current synthesis rules can only fuse the independent or completely dependent information sources and expanding the application scope of evidence theory in the practical decision-making on the one hand,on the other hand it also makes the results of emergency decision-making more objective.