A Study Based On Theory Of Evidence For Multi-attribute Risk Decision Making

In the socially economic lives, there are lots of problems of multi-attribute risk decision-making. At present, the research of risk decision-making under complete information has been more perfect. But in the process of actual decision-making, most decision-making information has the properties of not precise, incomplete, and fuzzy etc, and also many plocy-makers are not enough to understand the questions, or have the limitation of capacity on the information-handling; so the policy-makers often only want to or can supply the gray information. Therefore, to study on the theory and methods of multi-attribure risk decision-making which includes gray datas, has important theory and practical significance.This article takes the theory of evidence as the basic academic tool, and gives deep research to the questions of gray multi-attribute risk decision-making, but also has given some new decision-models and methods.Firstly, this article introduces the basic knowledge of theory of evidence, finishes the preparative for application in the model; Because the compositive rule of the theory of evidence is very important, and the traditional compositive rule is unable to deal with the situation of extreme conflict of evidence; So proposes a kind of compositive formula based on the information content, it can solve the problem well, which the traditional compositive rule cann't untie, and enables the results of decision-making to be scientific.In the third chapter, this article has carried on the simple introduction to the multi-attribute risk decision-making, in order to prepare for the application in decision-making. In the fourth chapter, firstly, it gives a fluctuant and interzone utility function, this function can transform the risk decision matrix ideally. Then, proposes one kind method which can solve the uncertain multi-attribute risk decision-making, this method deal with the value of risk matrix at first, then, transform the multi-attribute risk decision-making to the multi-attribute decision-making. Lastly, recognise the focus element of different attributes by the definition of element. Compute the creditable value of focus element and compose the creditable value, as well as choose the best project by the size of creditable interval.In the fifth chapter, it mostly solves the multi-attribute risk decision-making which contains default. Firstly, use the static and interzone utility function to deal with the decision matrix which contains default; then adopt two kind of method to compose the risk decision matrix, and mostly study the risk decision matrix which is composed of multi-attribute risk decision-making; lastly, confirm the focus element of different attributes by the metrical value of risk decision matrix. Compute the creditable value of focus element and compose them, as well as choose the best project by the size of creditable interval.Finally, in this article, the author carries on the summary and predicts, has pointed out the deficiencies of the studies, in addition, proposed some viewpoints which are worth waiting for the further studies.