Study On The Impact Of China’s Population Aging On Industrial Structure

Population aging has become a global problem,and the degree of population aging is deepening in various countries and regions.As early as 2000,China officially entered an aging society.In recent years,the aging speed is accelerating.At the same time,the population aging will have an impact on industrial structure by affecting the consumption structure and labor endowment.Considering that 31 provinces in China have different industrial structure characteristics and economic development levels,this paper discusses the status quo of population aging and industrial structure and the impact of aging on the industrial structure from the perspective of regional differences,then puts forward the targeted policy recommendations according to the differences between different regions.This paper first defines the concept and measurement index of population aging and industrial structure,and explains the influence mechanism of population aging on industrial structure.Then,the status quo of population aging and industrial structure in China and each region is described and analyzed.By fuzzy clustering method,31 provinces in China are divided into three regions: region one,developed economy and leading proportion of value added of tertiary industry;region two,relatively developed economy and similar proportion of value added of secondary and tertiary industries;region three,underdeveloped economy and leading proportion of value added of primary industry.Based on the data of population aging and industrial structure in each region from 2000 to 2020,grey trend relational analysis and partial least squares regression analysis are carried out,in which control variables are added into the partial least squares regression analysis.The empirical results show that,according to the grey trend relational analysis,the impact of population aging on the proportion of value added of the three industries is not affected by regional nature,and the tertiary industry has the greatest impact,while the primary industry has the least impact.However,according to the results of partial least squares regression,the direction of influence can be clearly defined.Aging in each region will have a significant negative impact on the proportion of value added in the primary industry,while the impact on the secondary and tertiary industries is not the same.As for the impact of population aging on the proportion of value added of various sectors,the results of grey trend relational analysis show that the financial sector is most affected by aging in region one,the real estate is the most affected by aging in region two and region three,and the sector least affected is agriculture in all regions.At the same time,according to partial least squares regression,the sectors that the aging of each region has a positive impact on the proportion of value added are mostly service-related sectors,such as real estate and other sectors,while the sectors having negative impact are generally agriculture and building sectors.Finally,based on the above research conclusions and the actual situation of each region,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: implementing regional differentiated industrial development policies;co-ordinate regional economic development;actively respond to population aging.