The Impact Of Population Aging On Consumption: Structure And Urban-rural Differences

For a long time,China’s economic growth has mainly depended on export trade and domestic capital.However,due to the impact of the epidemic at home and abroad,China’s foreign trade fell into difficulties in early 2020 and its economic development was blocked.Therefore,China must change its economic growth mode and promote economic and social development by expanding domestic demand.Since China entered the aging society,the proportion of the elderly population has been rising,and the aging degree has been deepening.At present,the number of the elderly population and the aging development speed are in the forefront of the world,which has become an important national condition of China.Aging has brought many challenges,but also brought development opportunities,aging contains huge opportunities for economic growth,in the overall consumer group,the elderly consumer group accounts for an expanding proportion,"silver economy" will create new opportunities for expanding domestic demand.But on the one hand,under the background of urban-rural dual economic structure,there are differences in consumption types between urban and rural residents;On the other hand,considering that China’s resident consumption structure has changed from a low level to a high level of direction.Therefore,based on the data of population aging and consumption,this paper studies the impact of population aging on the consumption structure and consumption upgrading of urban and rural residents from a new perspective,aiming to play a certain reference role for the government to adjust population policies and promote domestic demand.Firstly,this paper introduces the reasons for the topic selection and puts forward the problems to be analyzed.Second,introduce related theories and literature review;Third,determine the main variables of statistical indicators,and the population aging,consumption structure,consumption upgrade status and urban-rural differences are described and analyzed;Fourthly,carry on the mechanism analysis,according to the population aging and the consumption structure’s latest development situation,carries on the new explanation to its influence path.In terms of the mechanism analysis of population aging affecting consumption upgrading,there are few literatures devoted to its promotion mechanism.This paper tries to clarify its internal logical relations.Fifthly,empirical analysis is carried out,using the inter-provincial panel data from 2001 to 2019,and the consumption upgrading degree is calculated to analyze the impact of population aging on the consumption structure and consumption upgrading of urban and rural residents.The following three conclusions are mainly drawn:First,in urban areas,population aging has a negative effect on food,tobacco,alcohol,clothing,articles of daily use and services,and has a positive effect on other types of consumption expenditure,among which the promotion effect on housing is the greatest.In rural areas,population aging has a negative effect on food,tobacco,alcohol and clothing,and can significantly promote other types of consumption expenditure,among which medical care has the greatest promotion effect.The consumption of urban and rural residents on transportation and communication,education,culture,entertainment and medical care presents the characteristics of "urban-rural reversal",which is opposite to the level of economic development.Second,an ageing population could significantly promote the urban and rural consumption upgrading,and promote more in the countryside,this is due to the countryside on improving and developing consumer spending even,more can promote consumption upgrade speed,and towns affected by the high prices,while improve the consumption,but to some extent reduced the developmental consumption,is not conducive to the overall consumption upgrade speed of ascension.Third,on the one hand,the development of the market for the specific consumption needs of the elderly is not mature and perfect,so it cannot meet the various needs of the elderly for food and clothing products,leading to the reduction of the elderly’s spending on basic consumption;On the other hand,the proportion of residents’ consumption expenditure on other improvement and development commodities is gradually increasing,so we should vigorously support and accelerate the development of relevant industries,seize the development opportunity of "silver economy",and promote the improvement of people’s life and economic development in China.Finally,according to the analysis results,policy suggestions are given in terms of improving the income of the elderly,optimizing the population structure,developing the elderly industry,improving the social endowment insurance system and housing price control.